The October Surprise: A Brief View From Underneath

Many want to know The Whole Truth but no one can lasso it fully, especially not before it happens. When it comes to elections and the fate of our nation, you have your piece of the truth cow, and I have mine. Wait, I don't like where this metaphor is going, so I'll run with a more visually arresting one.

Jennifer Lopez makes the most of her very robust ass, and wherever she goes a conga line confirms its preciousness. People follow it all around, but those dancing in line often don't know where she's going next, and most don't inherently care, because her ass insures there will be cameras and parties wherever they go. Food, drink, drugs and a taste of fame. So it is with those on board the American Security Special, who likewise follow a volcanically, messianically insane self-centered ass.

Yes, you read correctly, I just compared the President (a.k.a. Preznit, or Dubya) of the United States to Jennifer Lopez (a.k.a. J-Lo, or Jenny from the Block). What's not to compare? They're both entertainers, they both have a single defining feature they employ to get coteries of obsessed twits to follow them slavishly around, they both love dressing up in costumes and they've both made gobs of money for a small group of greedy producers. The power of J-Lo's ass is such that it has forced some people to attend her concerts, even to buy her CDs. And the power of Dubya's conviction is such that it has forced some people to attend daily White House bible study sessions, even to make campaign donations for things he has no ability to deliver. Fortunately they both don't sing and dance. Let's just be thankful for that. (As an aside, while googling for a good image, I discovered that someone named Dean has a Jennifer Lopez Butt Gallery.)

Plenty of people inside the conga line and out are debating whether the US will attack Iran before the mid-term elections. On what's known as the Left, attacking Iran is seen as a way of assuring a Pug victory, a wet towel to sink the country's teeth into and drown out all else on a way to election victory for the Reich Wing. But is that what would really happen? So many ex-partygoers on what used to known as the Right Wing are questioning why J-Lo took them into such a bad part of Brooklyn, and are wondering how they can drop out of the conga line before things get truly ugly, i.e., before they themselves get hurt. It's as if there's an awful lot of crack being passed around, and some ugly looking dealers are prowling around the party with Uzis under their jackets flashing hostile gang signs. It's still loud enough so you can slip out without anyone noticing, and it may be cold outside but if you can't catch a cab there's probably a subway within 10 or 20 blocks. It seems like many have been following this basic line of reasoning, and the party has been largely thinned down to its radical elements. So I question the basic assumption that an Iran attack wins the elections for BushCo.

For the Outside Threat dynamic to be effective in garnering support, you’ve got to have either a credible threat or one that you can dress up as a convincing Halloween character. We’ve been hearing about Iran for far too long, their costume is badly made out of amateur-hour papier mache, and it seems like the reaction to bombing them would yield a big collective groan all over America, except maybe in the reddest parts of the Heartland and the Mountain West. If it happened before November 7th, or on November 7th, K-Ro (Karl Rove) could expect losing the Senate, and not just the House. If there are votes to count.

Yet K-Ro is partying like it's 1999, so he's probably making a different calculation, maybe one which would practically invalidate election results or delay them altogether. Oddly enough, a carrier battle group led by the USS Eisenhower is whooshing its way to the Persian Gulf as I write this, ostensibly for multinational naval exercises off the Straits of Hormuz, through which most of the world's oil passes. It's also a strike force which is joining If they attack Iran before the Elections, Iran can't be un-attacked. In other words, then it wouldn't matter if the House and Senate go to the Dims. The War would have already started, setting things into motion at home which would greatly favor the White House, and encourage further radicalization at home. Would a Dim Congress stop a war with Iran? More likely they'd try to figure out how to best benefit from it; food, drinks, drugs and a taste of fame. They'd be in the conga line. They already are.

Starting another war is also consistent with the doctrines of "taking the fight to the terrorists" and with making a bigger, louder mess when you want to divert attention away from a previous mess that's getting people upset. (They call the last technique "making history.") If you attack your Outside Threat, bad costume or no, they can be counted on to fight back. And in Pakistan, I could see…a coup d’etat which throws Musharraf out of power and puts nuclear missiles into the hands of the islamo-fascists. That’s credible. A real vote-getter. An election-suspender. Either way, who could stop them, if they stopped the Elections? What if J-Lo decides to lock the doors and declares we must party in her honor until dawn?

Fear not. Moses stuttered, and he learned to speak with true power. Pharoah tried to buy him off, and he led his people out of servitude anyway. If Iran is attacked (and I'm not sure it will be, only that it's meant to feel threatened) new blood borders will begin to form right here at home, and a Red Sea will be waiting impatiently to be parted and crossed.