Friday, October 10, 2008


Rays Of Hope

As the market does a reenactment of the free-falling submarine in Das Boot, and Republican candidates are smiling to audience calls of "kill the terrorist," someone is rock steady. When the media were going ga-ga over Palin, and the market was in a rally, Obama directed the nation to look to its economy. Here he talks to a crowd in Missouri and predicts the Republican fear-ploys.

His deft handling of the current "palling around with terrorists" meme is worth examining. Sarah Palin and Cindy McCain amplified it this week after the Tuesday's debate, and Obama's responded with self-regulated ease. "Why didn't John McCain say it to my face when he just had the chance?" (Subtext: come and take your medicine, coward-bitch.)

BushCo has imploded, it's been one of the worst weeks in Wall Street history, and Barack Obama is giving a speech to people in Columbus, Ohio. They're spontaneously chanting, "Yes We Can!"

Thursday, October 09, 2008


Weird Scenes Inside The Melt Down

Lining up for food and water, Louisville, Kentucky, 1937.

Temper Mental

John McCain runs on hate, you can't read much about him before coming to the simple conclusion. Bottom line, it's miraculous he has not publicly exploded of late. With almost a full month to go until the election and his campaign doing a credible imitation of the stock market, however, there's still hope. Brave New Films, the folks who brought you the acclaimed documentary "Walmart: The High Cost of Low Price," has assembled some people willing to go on the record about witnessing his rage episodes. They're worse than suspected. In the video, a credible witness claims he back-handed a female POW-MIA advocate named Jeanette Jenkins so hard she spun around and hit the wall. They show a copy of her subsequent complaint to the Senate Ethics Committee.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008


Psyche's News Roundup

Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Expands to 11 Over McCain
Who Won The Debate? Clean Sweep For Obama

Court Orders Release of 17 Innocent Guantanamo Detainees into U.S. | Center for Constitutional
US military may destroy interrogation videos - Wikileaks
Md. Police Put Activists' Names On Terror Lists - washingtonpost.com

2008 Recession & Credit Crunch Predicted 2 Years Ago | Peter Schiff on Debt & Inflated Housing Prices
No Quick Fix Roubini Forecasts Worsening Economy 2 Year Recession: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
Why Wall Street CEO’s Must Go To Jail And Payback Billions In Bonuses | War On You

Editorial - Politics of Attack - NYTimes.com (McSame: the dark territory of race-baiting and xenophobia)
Open Left:: Pandering to Undecided Voters... Bleh

BBC NEWS | Americas | Fact-checking the presidential debate
YouTube - The McCain-Obama Post-Debate "Handshake"
Not "The Senator," But "That One"

Talking Points Memo | Losing It? John McCain just referred to the country as "My Fellow Prisoners"
Brad DeLong - John McCain wants to give $100 billion of taxpayers' money to America's worst mortgage financiers

BBC NEWS | Business | Extra help for Icesave customers (Is Iceland toast?)


John McCain and the POW/MIA coverup : The Sirens Chronicles
For First Time, Palin Takes Questions (syntax worse than Bush: alcohol impairment, or just stupid?)

Q&A: E-voting security results 'awful,' says Ohio secretary of state How bad? 'I thought I was going to throw up'
Nothing but the truth: Internet hoaxes - Features, Gadgets & Tech - The Independent

The Ultimate 9/11 'Truth' Showdown: David Ray Griffin vs. Matt Taibbi - Part I | AlterNet
The Ultimate 9/11 'Truth' Showdown: David Ray Griffin vs. Matt Taibbi -- Part II | AlterNet
The Ultimate 9/11 'Truth' Showdown: David Ray Griffin vs. Matt Taibbi -- Part III | AlterNet

foto_decadent: Madonna
Flickr Photo Download: Attractive Face Scale
Free Advertising James Egbert Midkiff Opening Page Advertising Agency, marketing psychology

YouTube - Audi -- BULL
A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century - Esquire
Converting Pi to binary: Don't do it!@Everything2.com

The Master Debate

Apres debate, the audience of "carefully screened Undecideds" flocks around a Democrat, looking like they just found home.

Apart from the twist-o-meter battle going across the bottom of the screen and a few McCain patronizing gaffes and bad jokes, last night's "town hall debate" was predictably repetitive and obnoxious. My big take-away was that every time Obama said anything about Afghanistan, al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, Iran or hunting down the third-world $5 per diem mercenaries of Pakistan, a.k.a. "the Taliban," he flat-lined on both uncommitted men and women twist-o-meter focus groups. Barack should probably cut that shit out; most Americans don't care anymore, nor believe Gulbuddin Hekmatyar will go undercover in Santa Monica, take a few surfing lessons and blow up L.A. with a longboard.

Obama topped the graph out when he talked about energy being his first priority, and I was hoping to hear the phrase "Green Deal" out of him. But no. Mostly it was like watching a rigged fight, with Obama winning on points, all the while feeling he could rip McCain's arm off and beat him to death with it like whenever on political, factual, and personal bases, just boringly choosing not to. And maybe that's how the knob-twisters wanted it, since they disapproved of almost every criticism made by one candidate of the other.

While the debate might have been a yawn, the aftermath was anything but, starting off with McCain's refusal to shake Obama's hand. The C-Span cameras stayed for as long as there was a candidate in the room. After the debate, McCain and Cindy stuck around for only 1 minute, trailing a "let's get the hell out of here" aura as they left. Obama and Michelle stayed for half an hour, clearly enjoyed themselves, and didn't leave until they had engaged with every individual in the whole town hall crowd.
A summary:

00:00:13 — Cindy McCain walks out to greet her husband, and follows him awkwardly around the room for 25 seconds, until 00:00:39, when McCain finally acknowledges her presence with a quick, one-armed hug and a split-second glance at the side of her head.

00:01:19 — McCain may have patted Obama’s back here. Impossible to tell what exactly he is doing with his left arm. But if it was a pat on the back, however patronizing, it somewhat negates the handshake snub. Somewhat. But not really.

00:01:20 — The snub. Obama reaches out to shake McCain’s hand. McCain makes a weird face and points to Cindy McCain. Nonplussed, Obama smiles and takes her hand, says some pleasantries, and returns to the voters in the audience.

00:01:34 — McCain glances at Cindy, nods towards the exit door, and gives a spastic little bug-eyed wave goodbye to … the exit door he’s approaching?

00:01:35 — That’s it, the McCains are gone.

00:01:36 — Tom Brokaw is in the room, talking to the audience members. Barack and Michelle Obama are in the room, talking to the audience members. It’s almost as if there was an agreed-upon protocol — you know, basic manners.
00:01:36 through 00:11:11 — For the next 10 minutes, Barack and Michelle talk to people, pose for pictures, make jokes, have apparently serious conversations with people, sign autographs, shake hands, and otherwise engage with literally everybody in the room, a hundred people or more.

At 00:05:06, a woman slips under Barack’s arm and hugs him. He hugs her back, and she actually dances back to her seat, which makes a bunch of people laugh.

At 00:09:26, Barack starts talking to (we think!) the guy who asked the first question of the debate, the one about everybody losing all their retirement savings in the economic collapse. And he keeps talking to him, and keeps talking to him, and listening to him, for more than a minute.

At 00:10:42, a black guy in glasses and a gray sportscoat asks to have his picture taken with Obama, who motions up to the seats just out of view of the camera, and seems to say he was headed up there, but he’ll come back. At 00:11:15, he comes back to the guy and happily poses for the picture.

And that’s where this C-SPAN clip ends. The live video feed last night went on for another twenty minutes, because that’s how long the Obamas stayed in the little theater, working the room, their “body language” betraying no exhaustion or wish to get out of there and have a beer and relax. Which I was already doing for them until I found out that, Oh Cripes, there's another one of these damned things to go through between now and Halloween.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008


Fear Of A Black Reagan

Town hall debate coming up tonight at 6PM Hollywood Standard Time. The rules will be standard Media Wrestling Federation non-tag team format, with 3-second fall and 10-minute time limits, and jumping off the top rope is allowed. This picture will have to do until I think of something constructive to say.

Monday, October 06, 2008


Bruce Springsteen Gives Voter Registration Concert in Philadelphia

Seems the Boss called up the Obama campaign and asked to help out. Some young staffer probably said, "Thank you very much for your interest, Mr. Springsteen, we'll get back to you. Oh, wait--I know...you're like a famous musician, right? Maybe you could play some music!"

The legendary rocker interrupted a free seven-song acoustic set at avoter-registration rally in Philly on Saturday to threaten to break his guitar over the head of anyone who votes for John McCain. Well, not really. He did talk about equality, fairness, America, etc., and the need to register. Pretty cool thing for an American Icon to do on a Saturday afternoon.

Sunday, October 05, 2008


Beach-Front Was The Garden Of Eden

Imprudently or not, I try to think sometimes without constraint or convention, especially after having a crazy idea that won't go away. A recent example was provoked by day-dreaming, by thinking that I have not yet bought tickets to the Lucy exhibit which is coming to town, and by having learned a few years ago that humans forget how to swim. So here we go: the main branch of our primate ancestors came up from the water, not down from the trees. And there are crazy implications.

Thinking about our fast-approaching second child, I remember how my wife had strongly considered a water birth with our first. Water births are growing in popularity here, are a European import, and are performed in large, warm jacuzzi baths. In learning about that birthing process in detail, a couple of oddities made themselves known: newborns will not drown in the jacuzzi, hold their breath underwater instinctively and without panic, and come into the world knowing how to paddle, even to swim and amazingly well. They don't lose these abilities for at least 3 months, so if you keep them swimming across that threshold until 1 year old, they'll never forget.

Whether insight or wild hair, my initial flash of conviction was followed by a cascade of other thoughts on our strange adaptations: a conspicuous lack of body hair; a tendency, particularly in the male and alone among mammals, to go bald; our sebaceous glands contribute to that by making our skin greasy; our backs are straight, and at great cost; we largely lost the ability to go on fours, or grip with our feet; and yet only 2% of our genome differs from chimpanzees. Something lengthy and profound must have befallen us to engineer such sharp differences from all the other apes, and the time-frames typically professed seem inadequate.

In fact, I cannot think of any hairless mammals which aren't aquatic. The ancestors of whales and dolphins, sea cows and seals, hippos and manatees went into the water and lost their hair; sebaceous-greased skins are less permeable to liquids, better for regulating internal temperatures, better for sliding through; and straight backs are unstressed in water, valuable for speed, comfortable for peeking up and over, most convenient for drawing breath. And if at some point in the Pliocene our desperate, perhaps even stranded ancestors on sudden islands ventured into the water, it was a wise move, for there was easy bounty so long as we could devise some tools, and it is bounty well-remembered. Throughout prehistory and into early history, 99% of known human populations lived within mere yards of water.

Later, because of my profession (one which involves the analysis and reproduction of speech) I realized that possibly the best argument for aquatic origin was staring me right in the mouth. Speech! Apes have vocal chords quite capable of forming words, differing little anatomically if at all from ours. As one would expect given their close social structures and environments, however, they use facial expression and hand signage for communication. There has been limited lab success despite ongoing, agonized efforts to get them to speak. Only a very few words have ever been elicited, all of which require little or no controlled expulsions of air, such as mama, papa, and cup. Vocal expression recapitulates ease of making sounds.

At a deep, and I might on this ground say at a scientific level, I know the reason homo sapien speaks, even weave its world in language and word, is the same reason whales and dolphins have their versions--if we ever existed in the water, we needed speech to communicate at distances. In a remarkable coincidence, being in and under the water simultaneously required and prepared us to do so. The ability to hold and control our breathing was the basis for human language, giving us the necessarily conscious control over the air in our lungs, air which would come to blow over our vocal chords like bellows excite the pipe arrays of church organs.

Almost to my disappointment, I Googled "aquatic primate" and found that a debate over watery origins had raged in the paleontology community for quite some time, so my flash of insight was in no way unique. Just unpopular. While the idea has been discredited, it was not on evidence. We are expected to believe that between Lucy and the early Pliocene, in the gaping void of 5 to 20 million years ago, an unknown ape descended from trees, and while crossing a vast, hot, extremely hostile savannah evolved the upright bipedal posture of modern man and kept its ape-head largely unchanged. Yet all the bones ever found and held up as evidence for this theory would fit into two shoe-boxes. I fully intend to go see Lucy's skull fragments, and even to burn a candle of respect for a cousin. But I also plan on keeping an open mind in a yawning dark cavern of undiscovered knowledge, and will encourage others to do the same.

Googling a bit further, I quickly found that human beings have another curious reaction, something unknown among any other land-borne mammals. If you splash cold water on our faces, our pulse rates drop by over 50%. It's called the Dive Reflex.

Not Just $700 Billion--It's $2.7 Trillion & Counting

In the haze left by financial chicanery, no one bothered to total up the damage and report it. Until a blogger did so. Here's his take:

WaMu goes down!! Wall Street vs. Your Street.

By Reconstitution 2.0

[excerpts]
"$1.964 TRILLION of liquidity that has already been pumped into the system, so why would anyone think another $700 billion will make any difference in making lenders lend again?? The short answer is: It won’t!!

the problem is not liquidity, the problem is trust. If the problem were liquidity, all of the money the FED and Treasury have pumped into the markets over the past six months would have been sufficient to cure any problems. Let’s look at the list [for the past 6 months]:

Bear Stearns takeover and fold into JP Morgan. Cost to FED = $29 billion.

28 Day Term Auction Facility. Cost to FED = $100 billion.

28 Day Term Repurchase Agreements. Cost to FED = $150 billion.

28 Day Term Securities Lending Facility. Cost to FED = $200 billion.

Overnight Primary Dealer Credit Facility. Cost to FED = $262 billion.

28 Day TSLF Option Auctions. Cost to FED = $50 billion.

84 Day Term Auction Facility. Cost to FED = $25 billion.

Federal Housing Finance Agency (Fannie/Freddie nationalization). Cost to Treasury = $500 billion.

AIG nationalization. Cost to FED = $85 billion.

MBS purchases. Cost to Treasury = $200 billion.

Swap line with European Central Bank. Cost to FED = $120 billion.

Swap line with Swiss Central Bank. Cost to FED = $30 billion.

Swap line with Bank of Japan. Cost to FED = $60 billion.

Swap line with Bank of England. Cost to FED = $40 billion.

Swap line with Bank of Canada. Cost to FED = $10 billion.

Asset Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Liquidity Facility. Cost to FED = $73 billion.

Conversion of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to banks. Cost to FED = unknown.

Swap line with Reserve Bank of Australia. Cost to FED = $10 billion.

Swap line with Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweeden). Cost to FED = $10 billion.

Swap line with Danmarks Nationalbank (Central Bank of Denmark). Cost to FED = $5 billion.

Swap line with Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway). Cost to FED = $5 billion.

—————————-

...the Paulson outline is doomed to failure because it does nothing to add transparency or clarify the true value of any “product”. What needs to happen is every MBS and CDO must be pulled apart, each individual mortgage evaluated to determine if the account is current or in default, then regrouped and re-rated properly. But that is a lot of work and Paulson’s bunch of Wall Street “consultants” will never do it."
(passed on by Bruce at the River Blog.)

Friday, October 03, 2008


Psyche's News Roundup

Rice Admits She Led High-Level White House Talks About Torture | The Smirking Chimp

TPMCafe | Talking Points Memo | Wall Street's Infinite Sleaze: Goldman and AIG: Can Wall Street's Corruption Be Exaggerated?

A Memo Found in the Street - Barrons.com (deregulation: how the Republicans & Clinton created the financial crisis)

Talking Points Memo | House girds for second try on financial rescue

Jonathan G.S. Koppell and William N. Goetzmann - The Trickle-Up Bailout - washingtonpost.com

Who's profiting from the crisis? The Goldman Sachs Bailout - MarketWatch

Poll: Obama Makes Gains with Women, Hits New High - TIME
Dan Froomkin - Bush's 70 percent disapproval rating highest of any President

Poll: U.S. Concerned But Split On Bailout, CBS News Survey Shows That Americans Fear Effects Of Financial Crisis But Are Not Convinced Bailout Plan Is The Solution

SEC gives banks more leeway on mark-to-market | Reuters

Warren Buffett explains the credit crisis to Charlie Rose | mathoda.com

An Everyman on the Trail, With Perks at Home - NYTimes.com

Senate passes $700B rescue; House votes lured

Wash Post's Pearlstein: "Anyone opposing the bailout is ignorant" - Glenn Greenwald - Salon.com replies

STATS: Betting on the bailout

Will credit default swaps cause the next financial crisis? - Sep. 30, 2008 The $55 trillion question

The Next New Deal - 4/1992 (last time around)

Magpie » No Money Down: People’s homes a medium for the redistribution of wealth

The Fuel That Fed The Subprime Meltdown

Journalists, Bail Yourselves Out at Newsless.org

Whiskey Fire: A Gift to Every Naked Fat Baby Has there ever, ever been a sorrier, more discredited asshole than Glenn Reynolds?
Hooman Majd | The Daily Show | Comedy Central | Iran's nuclear enrichment rights

Trojan Horse - by Christopher Ketcham - How Israeli Backdoor Technology Penetrated the US Government's Telecom System and Compromised National Security

LBJ and Israel

Mondoweiss: Has Israel Got a Taliban Too?

Dakota In Anticipation Of The Vice Presidential Debate

Dakota Why People Still Vote for Republicans: ("One Mole Away from the Presidency")

SCENARIOS - How the Palin-Biden debate could play out | World | Reuters

CQ Politics | Beyond the Dome - Obama Makes McCain Very Uncomfortable

Couric to Palin: Do You Know We're Recording This? - 236.com - The Room

What Sarah Palin's candidacy says about America | The Smirking Chimp

Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol And Cigarettes, Says A Report From The Beckley Foundation | Health | Sky News

Jeff Hawkins on how brain science will change computing | Video on TED.com

Jupiter Stars In The Sharpest Ground-Based Whole-Planet Picture Ever Taken | Scientific Blogging

The United States of Mind - WSJ.com

Thursday, October 02, 2008


On Bailing Oceans

I had a great teacher who used to say, "Maybe the way to the answer is to ask a good question." Here's a good question: If you were the CEO of a failed bank and the government gave you, let's think small, $50 billion in exchange for the worst trash on your balance sheet, what would you do with the money?

You're probably more altruistic than me. But as that CEO, I would haul ass to buy gold, ships full of grain, things that come in 55-gallon drums, Swiss francs, platinum, memberships in a Dubai golf course, toilet paper futures, a couple of chocolate plantations, copper wire, Filipino pot farms, and maybe some stock in Campbell's Soup (the only publicly traded stock which went up on Monday). I would not, not, not lend it to US consumers who don't have rock-solid credit.

First, in my CEO hat, I see Toyota's sales just fell by 30%, that venerable domestic carmakers were awarded huge government loans to avoid bankruptcy, and my own credit card portfolio looks like it'll need a rescue of its own. Second, I'd guess the country's going to be tapped out for a while and experience something between the 1987 stock market crash and Hooverville. Third, and most importantly, every other banker thinks like me. I know there will be a frenzied stampede to quality--the safe, boring investments which hold value will be snapped up, and if I move faster than my competitors do, I'll make a lot of money in the next asset bubble. If it means buying bordellos in Bangkok rather than making car loans to marginal US workers so they can show up at their jobs, too bad. I'll list the bordellos as resorts on the balance sheet and my investors will be happy.

Hey, there's no law yet against answering your own question, especially when it describes what's going to happen. The Senate just voted 74-25 to approve a bailout plan that's not going to work, and the House is expected to approve 450 pages of "Do Something." The plan pays face value, face value, for completely unregulated, illiquid, esoteric derivative instruments with leprosy. This is pure largesse, and bankers will take most of the bailout capital straight out of the country on amazingly nimble little sheep-legs, moving so fast that they blur. We can skip over the financial panics which took down Rome, France during the South Sea Bubble, Weimar Germany as a global domino in 1931, and the failure of Japan's long bail-out from 1987 until now. But some contextual blame-storming is in order.

So...who or what is to blame, and why won't the bill work? More than any single person, Milton Friedman is to blame, and his popular ideas are responsible for the confusions most impeding a solution. Friedman was (he's dead) the most respected worldly philosopher of US economics, and his Chicago School ideas formed current perceptions of how markets work. 25 years ago, his views on deregulation, markets, and shock therapy had become orthodoxy at the IMF, the World Bank, Wall Street, and in the halls of government. Few people are aware of how tolerant he was of monetary expansion, and fewer still are conversant with the trails of hyperinflation and crisis he left across the world (masterfully chronicled in Naomi Klein's magnum opus, "The Shock Doctrine").

Things resembling this same bill have been passed before in other countries over the barrel of crisis, and despite ample forensic evidence left at the crime scenes, hardly any people in the halls of power question Friedman's dogmas, let alone realize how dangerously, dunder-headedly wrong his doodle-bops have proven in both theory and practice. Even during these opening stages of our intestinal disturbance, the language used to describe it remains almost entirely his. We're agonizing on the toilet, alternating between vomit and dysentery, and his prescription is Ex-Lax. Simply put, Friedmania is a contorted, neo-colonial, cleverly self-rationalized excuse for looting governments and ridding societies of safety nets, pledging trusts in large organizations and moral hazards so atrocious Adam Smith would have pissed out a thousand posthumous pages on them. But for us, these precepts mark our policy compass.

Ben Bernanke, current Federal Reserve Chairman, is a prominent Friedman acolyte lauded for expertise on the history and causes of the Great Depression. In short, they don't think the Fed intervened aggressively enough in the financial crisis following the Crash of '29. At Milton Friedman's 90th birthday celebration in 2002, Bernanke remarked:
"Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve System. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again."
What he meant was that massive monetary expansion was the balm, and the Fed could have inflated its way back into macroeconomic prosperity. Shockingly, however, Friedman and Bernanke are completely wrong about the Fed's intervention efforts and the Depression. Their position is difficult to reconcile with facts (of which they surely can't be ignorant) and anyone with a passing interest will find that the Fed printed scads of money and repeatedly beseeched banks to start loaning it out in order to reverse the accelerating deflation trend. Yet despite access to capital, credit tightened and lenders kept foreclosing on mortgages and businesses, preferring to retreat into safe havens, abetted by government stimulus. I call this phenomenon the "What Bankers Do When They're Scared Shitless" theory of economics.

Approximately 40% of US banks failed back then, and small depositors were the first to lose their money. Now, the depositors are insured, but the world is plunging into financial vapor-lock. The Chicago School sees it as an opportunity. Back in the 1930s, after various stimulation packages, government work schemes, and something called the New Deal, the US unemployment rate was still over 25% in 1938. If you wanted a loan during the Depression, banks demanded proof of asset ownership 150%-200% over their loan amount. The architects of this bailout should recall what Friedrich Hayek, founder of the fairly sane Austrian School of economics, had to say about Hoover's panicked bailout efforts by 1932:

“Instead of furthering the inevitable liquidation of the mal-adjustments brought about by the boom during the last three years, all conceivable means have been used to prevent that readjustment from taking place; and one of these means, which has been repeatedly tried though without success, from the earliest to the most recent stages of depression, has been this deliberate policy of credit expansion. ... To combat the depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about ...”

People ask me, "What's going to happen?" I don't know exactly, but Friedman and Bernanke believe the cure for deflation is inflation, and they believe the cure for inflation is higher inflation. History says massive credit expansion alone will not work, and if it succeeds, the good news is that we'll get hyperinflation. You only need to look at recent applications of these theories in Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Brazil, Thailand and Africa to view some possible futures. It's very hard to change human nature; getting bankers to recapitalize by lending easy money to troubled consumers goes against it, and is of highly dubious wisdom anyway.

There are success stories in ameliorating the cycles of boom and bust. Morality aside, if regulators take equity stakes in banks, give them access to capital and directly control their foreclosure and loan decisions, it has worked. In fact, this was exactly the intended role and purpose of the FDIC. Sweden took this course in 1993, it worked, and made handsome profits re-privatizing the Svenska Rikbank's equity later. Here, the right questions are not being asked. Questions like these:

1) how do we make sure banks make loans and extend relief to deserving consumers?

2) how can we curb hyperinflation while providing stimulus?

3) what would entice ordinary people to re-invest in banks?

George Soros, who probably understands global markets better than anyone, has a proposal that would work and answers those last three questions. In a system hamstrung by ideology, it probably won't happen, but on a personal level there's a bright side: you can out-hustle the bank CEOs to those asset havens.

Wednesday, October 01, 2008


The Mooselini Bounce Is Over

Lord Mom sent along an aggregation site of called PalinSucks.Org. I thought it would be flash videos and satire, but it's full of links to serious information dug up from far and wide on our possible Mrs. President. Anyhow, whether resulting from getting to know Sarah Palin better or from McCain's dramatic economic leadership, a bunch of new polls are out, and they indicate the battle for female and independent voters has decidedly swung in Obama's favor.

A new Time magazine poll has Obama 50-43, with a McCain collapse among women.
Obama leads McCain by 17 points with women, 55%-38%. Before the conventions, women preferred Obama by a margin of 10 points, 49%-39%. After McCain picked Palin as his running mate, the gap narrowed to a virtual tie, with Obama holding a 1-point margin, 48%-47%.
As a cross-reference, there are the Q-poll results. In Florida, women now back Obama 57-37, in Ohio Obama leads 53-39, in Pennsylvania Obama leads 58-34. (In men among those states, McCain runs from a dead heat to +5.)

Big trouble for McCain. He has the personality of a sea urchin, the body language of a low-status chimpanzee, and the credibility of a used car salesman in a clown suit. He has no room to maneuver on pro-choice, Palin was his best shot at the demographic, and after seeming to gain traction for a week or two she's spinning out. He may go more aggressive on Iraq withdrawal and give it more female-friendly packaging, which might help a little, but I don't see how he can regain decent support levels amongst women.

Further, Pew has a poll out today, Obama 49-42, an AP/Gallup national has Obama 48-41, and the CNN/OPR state polls in some battleground states are as follows:
Florida 51/47
Minn. 54/43
Nevada 51/47
Virginia 53/44
Missouri 49/48.
Getting above 50% in Florida is huge, getting above it in Nevada is downright surprising. Polls are neither terribly precise nor valid, but when they're starting to agree from multiple angles over time...

(Note: if, in an attempt to maintain your sanity, you swore off the evils of pop culture and don't recognize the picture above the title, it's a fembot from Austin Powers' "The Spy Who Shagged Me" movies.
)

'Jolene,' Ray Lamontagne, Song & Lyrics

There's a guy in front of the grocery store, looking down at the ground, rocking back and forth on a folding chair, abusing an acoustic guitar. As you get closer you can hear him start to sing, "Cocaine flame in my bloodstream. I sold my coat when I hit Spokane. Bought myself a hard pack of cigarettes. In the early morning rain." Right with his first line, he has earned your attention.

An interviewer in Australia pressed Ray LaMontagne on the inspirations for his songs, where they came from, his artistic process. After uncomfortably deflecting a couple of the questions LaMontagne paused for a long time and then said, "I was reckless with my self sometimes." He didn't betray any secrecies to which he'd sworn, feeling his songs already do it well enough. The accidents of linguistic structures force poetry into sidetracks, sometimes inaccuracies and sometimes embellishments, but while soaking in his constructive mastery, you can also tell it's for real:

Cocaine flame in my bloodstream
sold my coat when I hit Spokane
bought myself a hard pack of cigarettes
in the early morning rain

Lately my hands they don't feel like mine
my eyes been stung with dust and blind
held you in my arms one time
lost you just the same

Jolene,
I ain't about to go straight--
it's too late
I found myself face-down in a ditch
with booze in my hair, blood in my lips
a picture of you holding a picture of me
in the pocket of my blue jeans

Still don't know what love means
Still don't know what love means
Jolene!

Been so long since I seen your face
or felt a part of this human race
I've been living out of this here suitcase for way too long
A man needs something he can hold onto
a nine pound hammer or a woman like you
either one of them things will do

Jolene,
I ain't about to go straight--
it's too late
I found myself face-down in a ditch
with booze in my hair, blood on my lips
a picture of you holding a picture of me
in the pocket of my blue jeans

Still don't know what love means
Still don't know what love means
Jolene!

Tuesday, September 30, 2008


Insane Swedish Twins Take On The M6

My last post mentions running out into traffic in the throes of mental illness as an economic metaphor, so I later Googled for visuals. Turned up more than I bargained for.

The incident in the video above defies description; it is real, but bizarre, disorienting, beyond rational analysis. For reasons of their own, Swedish twin sisters run onto the M6 in England and get hit by vehicles. One gets run over by a heavy truck and survives. The other gets hit by a second car, a first one having hit her to no effect some minutes before. The second vehicle does manage to briefly knock her out, but she stands up without any sign of injury, sheds a policewoman trying to restrain her, and runs into traffic again. It takes six people to eventually subdue her enough to strap her down and shove her into an ambulance. The very brief BBC news story says that both women recovered. Recovered?? One of them was run over by a truck and helicoptered out. The other bashed in a car's windshield, folded in the crease of its roofline, and stressed the metal enough to split it. Police directly on the scene thought they were both fatalities, but all it seemed to do to the sisters was piss them off more, and they were already suicidal.

A Swedish newspaper says the twins were charged with murder for fatally stabbing a 54-year old English male in the heart back in May, and one of them had previously jumped off a bridge over highway A50, breaking her ankles and skull. The only thing I could find about this in the British press was a reference to Sabine Eriksson being held in jail the next day for assaulting an officer. What exactly must one do to get some help for mental illness?

Monday, September 29, 2008


American Mania, Pt. II: "You Maniacs! You Blew It Up! Damn You! God Damn You All To Hell!"

Where to begin. The scheduled intervention fails, 777 DJIA points and $1.15 trill go ba-bye in a few hours. I've seen worse, but this falls probably somewhere in Phase 3 of the manic cycle, the part where the victims devolve into terrified grandiosities, deciding to run out into traffic because they think they're privy to the Special Knowledge and can control cars with their minds. Both they and their rescuers will become very confused and can't put together why they got hit and flew through the air, because it makes no sense. I meditate on minds, markets, and money, on religions, and quests for immortality. As it is on the micro-individual, so it is on the macro-collective.

What the hell were they thinking, and what are they doing out there? South Sea bubbles, popular delusions, madness of crowds, marathon weekend meetings, tulip crazes unwinding, dot-com business and bailout plans rejected, broken shop windows burning and can't we all just get along as the batons rain down on our Rodney-Kingness. If maniacs survive the impact, they'll just respond with indignation, and serve out venomous recriminations. When you hear those creative obscenities, it means they're almost at the end of the cycle.

In the first stage, mania is easily camouflaged in masks of optimism and bliss. When you feel great, better than great, when you're able to directly hear the music of the spheres, the twitching muscles of the bull are at your command. You expand, you swell, you exuberate, and your exuberations are infectious. You form magical ideas, dwelling on them until you assemble them into energetic arguments, so you start to run, calling others to follow, and some do.

You run faster, faster still, shedding your past self, and so you shift into the second phase of mania. Into what they call hypomania. The compass of your body is pointed at the elixir and is propelled by fire. It's pressed down into inexhaustible white embers, stoked and sheltered in your ashes, difficult for many to detect. Your animus can outlast, it can baffle and overcome all who would assail it, and you silence the doubts of the skeptics and naysayers, even the ill-advised on cocaine. Your convincing crystalline vision sweeps them aside like a UFO sweeps away Model Ts. Risks and expenses be damned, disposable servants of supernatural vision. You will change the world.

You become impatient. The slow parts of the world do not serve quickly enough, they lag, and you are surrounded by uncomprehending fools who dispense intolerable ridicule upon you. What the spheres have revealed must work, it is destiny, and these detractors are irrational simpleton. Why do they not see? They refuse your simplest requests. You have an urge to do them harm, if only it would do some good, but your mission is to help them because you're their Messiah. It's far better to show them what you mean, to construct a perilous illustration of your powers which none can deny, so you hoist upon your back the crucifix, you'll walk out onto that freeway, the oncoming Pharisees and cars at your command.

You are hit and cry.
Why hast thou forsaken me? Your tired dopamine receptors, your burned dendrites and glazed synapses unlock as the pain starts to break through, and your joy circuits begin to realize they've been overladen for so long, so long. You're brought broken into a den, nay a cage, angry, angry with God, angry with those who thwarted you, angry with the ones who rescued you, angry over the passage of time, angry at the pointless waste, at the reversion to the human mean, flooding with anguish and self-doubt, wondering how to bear your unbearable humiliations, knowing and needing to reconstruct who and what you are.

Compared to the rest of the cycle, the hibernation is short. We're all going to heaven, we are all going the other way, and this is what we have to go through.

(Note: I've stolen from so many unattributed sources in this post, it's silly. If you're one of them, complain.)

McCain Campaign Takes Credit For Bailout Bill...Which, Ahhhm...Didn't Happen

Steve Schmidt, John McCain's campaign manager, exhibits his wares fully on yesterday's Press the Meat. He was, of course, joined by a plethora of Pug-bots repeating the same woefully ass-to-mouth, sequaciously inept, Chickens-Before-They're-Hatched Talking Points. Hahahahaa! Lewz-zers! But oh Jeebus what if these grasping Podsnappian dimwits, er, dot dot dot. Courtesy of the elegaic Empty Wheel, and via ThinkProgress:

“[T]his bill would not have been agreed to had it not been for John McCain. … But, you know, this is a bipartisan accomplishment, a bipartisan success. And if people want to get something done in Washington, they just watch John McCain.” — Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, 9/29/08

“Earlier in the week, when Senator McCain came back to Washington, there had been no deal reached. … What Senator McCain was able to do was to help bring all the parties to the table, including the House Republicans.” — Senior adviser Steve Schmidt, 9/28/08

“But here are the facts, and I’m not overselling anything. The fact is that the House Republicans were not in the mix at all. John didn’t phone this one in. He came and actually did something. … You can’t phone something like this in. Thank God John came back.” — Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), 9/28/08

“Before John McCain suspended his campaign yesterday, the situation that we’re looking at today looked very different then. After he showed leadership and called for bipartisanship, for us to partisanship aside and tackle this solution head on, here we are.” — Spokesman Tucker Bounds, 9/25/08

Great work, McCain!!

Update: Meanwhile, McCain's hiding in the front of the Straight No Talk Express trying to figure out what he can say about this.

"After bragging today about his role in shaping the economic bailout package, Sen. John McCain has made no statement to the press since the defeat of the bill, in part at the hands of House Republicans. McCain boarded his Straight Talk Air charter plane a few minutes ago, but the plane has not taken off yet. McCain is in the front of the plane, separated from reporters by a brown curtain."


The Real McCain: Communist Collaborator

I did not know this. Brother Tim over at the Blog of Revelation found a damning video of Republicans and fellow captives attacking McCain's Vietnam fabrications. They tell the truth about his successful, "heroic" effort on a 1992 Senate Select Sub-Committee to keep all Vietnam POW records classified. The measure to investigate POW-MIA status, and in the process open the records, was introduced by Republican Senator Bob Dole. It had previously passed the House of Representatives 401-0, was set to pass the Senate, but McCain dug in his heels. He was personally able to put language in the bill permanently classifying POW-MIA records. Just why would he have done so?

It has long been rumored that McCain, son of his Admiral father who commanded the US fleet off Vietnam, was offered special privileges and early release in exchange for 32 propaganda tapings he made for his captors. In itself, cracking under the mere threat of torture is excusable. But 32 interviews, containing confessions that could be played to people like Jane Fonda? Many American servicemen who cooperated far less with their Vietnamese interrogators than John McCain were not hailed as heroes, but were instead punished harshly under the "aid to enemies" provisions of the Code of Military Justice, losing rank, pay, and benefits.

There's a good reason John McCain is so obsessed with perceptions of his honor: he's a phony, and a coward. His political ambitions couldn't suffer transcripts of his interviews to come out, he made thousands of people whose boys went missing in Vietnam keep suffering. Now some of his fellow prisoners and lawmakers are speaking out against him. They're can't be dismissed as biased liberals, and they're pissed. View the video and pass it on to any fence-sitters as you see fit.

Saturday, September 27, 2008


Sign The Petition

Senator Bernie Sanders (Independent, VT) has a proposal to force taxpayer protections in the bailout that has gathered 100,000+ signatures. Add yours:

Dear Secretary Paulson:

As a representative of the Bush Administration, you have proposed a financial bailout program of $700 billion – over $2,000 for every man, woman, and child in the country. We are appalled that your proposal puts the cost of this bailout on average Americans; that it contains no provisions reversing failed deregulatory policies; that it allows executives at these failed institutions to continue to make exorbitant salaries and bonuses, and that your proposal contains no help for average Americans who themselves are facing severe economic hardships.

While the Administration has quickly rallied to help Wall Street, it has ignored the needs of the declining middle class. Since President Bush has been in office the wealthiest people in this country have made out like bandits and have not had it so good since the 1920s. The top one-tenth of one percent now earn more income than the bottom 50 percent of Americans and the top one percent own more wealth than the bottom 90 percent. Incredibly, the richest 400 people in our country saw their wealth increase by $670 billion during the Bush presidency.

Having mismanaged the economy for 8 years while continually insisting that, “The fundamentals of our economy are strong,” the Bush Administration, six weeks before an election, wants the middle class of this country to bail out Wall Street to the tune of one trillion dollars. Meanwhile the wealthiest people, those who have benefited most from Bush’s policies and are in the best position to pay, are being asked for no sacrifice at all. This is absurd.

Any plan to clean up the mess on Wall Street must:

1. Ensure that middle income and working families are not the ones who are paying for this bailout by
Imposing a five-year, 10 percent surtax on income over $1 million a year for couples and over $500,000 for single taxpayers. That would raise more than $300 billion in revenue over five years;

Ensuring that assets purchased from banks are realistically discounted so companies are not rewarded for their risky behavior and taxpayers can recover the amount they paid for them; and

Requiring that taxpayers receive equity stakes in the bailed-out companies so that the taxpayers’ assumption of risk is rewarded when companies’ stock goes up.

Taken together these three provisions will substantially reduce the likelihood that this bailout will end up on the backs of average American taxpayers.

2. Include a major economic recovery package which puts Americans to work at decent wages. Among many other areas, we can create millions of jobs rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure and moving our country from fossil fuels to energy efficiency and sustainable energy. Further, we must protect our must vulnerable families from the very difficult times they are experiencing.

3. Repeal the disastrous de-regulatory legislation that facilitated this crisis.

4. End the danger posed by companies that are “too big too fail,” that is, companies whose failure would cause systemic harm to the U.S. economy. If a company is too big to fail, it is too big to exist. We need to determine which companies fall in this category and then break them up.
In closing, we believe it is appropriate to act quickly to address any systemic danger to our economy. But that does not mean that we need to give a blank check to the financial sector.

Sincerely,

Senator Bernie Sanders

Citizen Co-Signers
(from Bruce at the River Blog)

Going To The Candidates Debate

Laugh about it, shout about it when you've got to choose. John McCain didn't start chewing his microphone, exhibit obvious signs of Alzheimer's or remove his clothes to show the scars of his formative captivity. Those possibilities were in good part why we tuned in to Friday night's debate, but we're dealing with the disappointment.

There was a new real-time "audience reaction" graph for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents which crawled across the bottom of the screen, so we got to see the instant-gratification reaction of focus groups to what Obama and McCain said. Focus group members were given a dial to twist up or down depending on how they felt. In general, attacking the opponent was met with their disapproval, although Obama's highest twist came when recalling McCain's mistaken early support for the war in Iraq.

In a Fox News focus group of independents evenly split amongst Bush-Kerry voters in 2004, they gave the debate to Obama 61-39. They also think Obama won every individual segment. In the partisan focus groups, Republicans gave the debate to McCain 90-10, Democrats to Obama 93-7. You could see how ragged and indecisive the graph line was for the Independents was at many points, versus the steady sine waves of the declared. Obama gained ground, sure, but McCain won points for showing up and appearing coherent after saying he wasn't going because the fate of the country is too important, and made a case for being our bipartisan shibboleth.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008


A Letter From Paulson Estates

The tools to understand what's happening to America lie not in the details of CDOs, CDSs, SIVs, LBOs, MBSes or MMMFs. They're heated and forged in history, context, metaphor. Having predicted 7 years ago in another scurrilous September, these fallouts we're witnessing, knowing this time they wouldn't be content until they'd taken everything, I'm still the fool.

Hank Paulson was involved in Watergate; he was John Erlichman's assistant, Erlichman who went to jail for setting up "the Plumbers," the internal witch hunt in the White House, and hotel break-ins. For any youngsters who wander in here, the codes you just heard means Comrade Treasury Secretary Paulson wants to finish America off and turn it into something else, say, "Paulson Estates." He appeared with all the talking heads on Sunday, then came before our cold comfort Congress to sow hysteria and demand the full wealth of Golconda, else the wrath of financial Jupiters will rain down. There has been silence, and a deeper silence, while the Senators hesitate.

There is no law which says when a mortgage lives to 3 years old, a borrower's payment has to triple. That's a contract, not a law. Foreclosure is a choice. $100 billion to bridge the gap between non-performing home loans and the value of financial derivatives would have held up the whole house of cards, but it couldn't be done, because the Law of Personal Responsibility would be violated. (Yet a mortgage moratorium was done here in 1933 to keep people in their houses and farms.) There are links, opinions, and facts galore, but history, context, and metaphor tell me what should be done is what will not be done. In a parallel universe where Ralph Naders dwell, here is what should be:

  1. No bailouts without conditions and reciprocity in the form of stock warrants.
  2. No more lobbying for any company that is bailed out.
  3. No golden parachutes or get-out-of-jail-free cards for guilty executives.
  4. No bailouts without public hearings.
  5. Reduce the moral hazard in U.S. mortgage markets by introducing covered bonds for the majority of mortgage products, as is done in Western Europe. That gives institutions that finance mortgages an incentive to be prudent, because they cannot just unload them and wipe their hands clean of the liability, but are instead on the hook if the homeowner defaults.
  6. Maintain neighborhood stability and housing security by passing a law with a sunset clause allowing below-median-value homeowners facing foreclosure the right to “rent to own” their homes at fair market value rates.
  7. Avoid future housing bubbles by removing implicit government guarantees for new mortgages that exceed thresholds of greater than 15 to 20 times the annual fair market rent value of the home.
  8. Make the Federal Reserve a Cabinet position, so it is accountable to Congress, as well as make sure all Federal Reserve Bank presidents are appointed by the president and answerable to Congress.
  9. Reduce conflicts of interest by taking away power for auditor and rating agency selection from companies and placing it in the hands of the SEC to be administered on random assignment.
  10. Implement a securities speculation tax, starting with derivatives, to deter casino-style capitalism.

I'm the fool. I still want them to take the world and hold it against the light which shines on Delphi, watch its cellophanes weave and play like color slides, suspend the orb in their marble abytum and set a gentle ear to the hive inside. I want them to pause on their ascendancy, roll pebbles idly down the mountain and meditate on each one's fall. Oh, how I wish they could skim across the surfaces of these earthly shelves and feel the tensile calculi, looking down with smiling faces, apprehending the artifacts of what once were nations, waving at us toiling on the shore.

But all they want is to chain the world to a wall, where they can torture out its full confession. It's reached the stage of urgency, you see, where full therapies must be applied, and nothing less will do. They've done with mere beatings and are bringing the electrodes. We'll say the words they want, oh yes, say them like we mean them. One day, when this has passed, we really will mean them, and we'll agree it was for our own good.

(Note: the painting above is Salvador Dali's "Soft Construction with Beans, Premonition of Civil War," painted in 1936.)