Tuesday, April 29, 2008


What's That Got To Do With The Price Of Rice?

Gasoline and wheat costs are soaring, home values are falling, logical results of an M3 supply (money creation) that's growing so fast it's no longer reported and a federal deficit that keeps on bleeding like a sliced femoral artery.
Total US defense costs over the past 6 years were $51,000 per household; costs of the Iraq War alone were $20,900 per househould, and could surpass that figure by 2017 according to a congressionally endorsed report (PDF). (Are the costs really calculable?) These news items are not disparate, and the effects are telling. When analyzing the US economy, which most everyone in the world has to do, it's important to look at the overall context. Therefore it's important to remember that the asylum has been conquered by its former inmates. For quite a while now. And if you are familiar with the economic philosophies of the free-market fundamentalists running this place, the outcome is no surprise. If you're not, they can be summed up like so: they're CRAZY.

For the record, I am not assailing the concept of markets, nor their dynamism; competition amongst makers and merchants fosters innovation and in turn new markets. This process is natural. The struggles to create wealth are biologically based,
market economic theory and Darwinism share a conceptual root, and the competition of species and market economies appear to obey similar behavioral laws.

In fact we know from his diaries that Darwin was reading Adam Smith's treatise, The Theory of Moral Sentiments, in 1839 while making notes for The Origin of Species. What I assail is compulsive focus on one particular aspect of Smith's observations and rank ignorance or denial of the rest; and that is precisely what the orthodoxy of the New School, Dr. Friedmanstein's economic monster, does. If Adam Smith were around today, he would be on CNN talking up man's instinctual curiosity, and forcefully arguing that free markets are just a myth. A useful myth, to be sure, but myth nonetheless--of course we require wise laws else we would be engulfed by slag heaps and puddles of mephitic filth like the ones he stepped round watching factories in Glasgow.

Smith had the Scotsman's love of thrift, and he would say of our bedazzled money-theorists: "What pleases these lovers of toys? How many people ruin themselves by laying out money on trinkets of frivolous utility?" While the rest of the world's economies see US troubles as a time to batten down the hatches and raise interest rates, for the New School, it's a time for massive stimulus, for lowering interest and printing more money. Intellectual hedonists ignore a diving dollar because the best-of-all-possible-worlds "free market" will eventually even it out. I can hear them now: "Besides, if it drops low enough it'll be a bargain, by my calculations in the year 2030, when those Chinese factory workers will be out of jobs. Heh-heh-heh, that'll teach those communist fools!"

The ripple effects of human suffering, the foreclosures, personal bankruptcies, divorces, desperation, riots and murders are only known to economists as "externalities." They got places like Argentina to believe them, causing what is known as the Argentinian Currency Crisis. They're also the people who brought you the Orwellian motto, "Support Our Troops: Go Shopping." They may be wearing doctor's white coats, goatees, and be carrying clipboards, but you had best run if one of these unmedicated mountebanks draws near.

But come, let's find some sane people to talk to, like maybe a foreign investor or even a foreign central bank. People like those thrifty Japanese, who hold 12% ($586.6 billion) of U.S. government debt. They've lost 7% on their Treasuries portfolio in the past 3 months alone. So, understandably, they've stopped buying our bonds. In fact the logical thing for them to do is sell the bonds they have, and put their money elsewhere as fast as they possibly can. Dai-ichi Mutual Life Insurance Co., Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. and Sumitomo Life Insurance Co., some of the biggest insurance companies in the world, are right now saying to themselves and each other, "How do we unload this shit?"

With a psychological, perhaps hereditary fondness for rice, Japan literally uses the price of it as an economic barometer--and it's up 5x over the past year. Japanese import 60% of their calories; they might be just a little worried. Once news gets out they're selling bonds, and they will if we attack Iran, many of us will be toast. Many governments will be toast even without that happening over the course of this summer, because of an avaracious, unstable empire, its cowed and corrupt courtiers, and general worship of false ideology. Short-term food prices are being driven up more by ideology's expressed effects, more by an enraged, ineffectual empire than a peaking population.

There's one hard but immediate way out of this mess; we get US troops out of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Africa. We do not attack Iran. Our own economic problems are the direct result of policy-makers whose wits became unmoored from basic realities all across the board, and the people gullible enough to believe their simplistic Easy Money Plans. Our very biggest problem is that a lethal Pentaconda is off killing other people so its owners, mostly Western oil companies at this point, can wear top hats and sing 'Billions from Heaven!' It's coiled around our necks, the ideology's getting tighter and tighter, and it's going to strangle us if we don't get help soon. What are the chances it will be, or can be, put back in its glass cage?

There is a chance. There is something that will loosen the snake and maybe turn it back. Those bond holdings provide enormous leverage, and the Long War is being financed entirely with debt. With the Price of Rice if you will. If I were the Japanese Minister of Finance, I would request a meeting with Warren Buffett, who used to be the richest man in the world. Because of the falling dollar, he isn't anymore. I'd inform him that if the United States military attacks Iran, we would sell every US Treasury note we own, and so would my colleagues in China, South Korea, and Taiwan; additionally, my country will not start buying US bonds again until the US begins withdrawing from Iraq. Nothing personal, Buffett-san. It's just the free market. Pass it on.

24 comments:

Pete Murphy said...

"Intellectual hedonists ignore a diving dollar because the best-of-all-possible-worlds "free market" will eventually even it out."

The dollar's decline has been driven by our enormous trade deficit and, contrary to what economists say, the decline in the dollar won't reverse the trade deficit because it has nothing to do with the root cause of the deficit - the gross disparity in population density and per capita consumption between the U.S. and many of its overpopulated trading "partners."

At this point, I should introduce myself. I am author of a book titled "Five Short Blasts: A New Economic Theory Exposes The Fatal Flaw in Globalization and Its Consequences for America." To make a long story short, my theory is that, as population density rises beyond some optimum level, per capita consumption begins to decline. This occurs because, as people are forced to crowd together and conserve space, it becomes ever more impractical to own many products. Falling per capita consumption, in the face of rising productivity (per capita output, which always rises), inevitably yields rising unemployment and poverty.

This theory has huge ramifications for U.S. policy toward population management (especially immigration policy) and trade. The implications for population policy may be obvious, but why trade? It's because these effects of an excessive population density - rising unemployment and poverty - are actually imported when we attempt to engage in free trade in manufactured goods with a nation that is much more densely populated. Our economies combine. The work of manufacturing is spread evenly across the combined labor force. But, while the more densely populated nation gets free access to a healthy market, all we get in return is access to a market emaciated by over-crowding and low per capita consumption. The result is an automatic, irreversible trade deficit and loss of jobs, tantamount to economic suicide.

One need look no further than the U.S.'s trade data for proof of this effect. Using 2006 data, an in-depth analysis reveals that, of our top twenty per capita trade deficits in manufactured goods (the trade deficit divided by the population of the country in question), eighteen are with nations much more densely populated than our own. Even more revealing, if the nations of the world are divided equally around the median population density, the U.S. had a trade surplus in manufactured goods of $17 billion with the half of nations below the median population density. With the half above the median, we had a $480 billion deficit!

Our trade deficit with China is getting all of the attention these days. But, when expressed in per capita terms, our deficit with China in manufactured goods is rather unremarkable - nineteenth on the list. Our per capita deficit with other nations such as Japan, Germany, Mexico, Korea and others (all much more densely populated than the U.S.) is worse. In fact, our largest per capita trade deficit in manufactured goods is with Ireland, a nation twice as densely populated as the U.S. Our per capita deficit with Ireland is twenty-five times worse than China's. My point is not that our deficit with China isn't a problem, but rather that it's exactly what we should have expected when we suddenly applied a trade policy that was a proven failure around the world to a country with one sixth of the world's population.

If you‘re interested in learning more about this important new economic theory, then I invite you to visit my web site at OpenWindowPublishingCo.com where you can read the preface for free, join in the blog discussion and, of course, buy the book if you like. (It's also available at Amazon.com.)

Please forgive me for the somewhat "spammish" nature of the previous paragraph, but I don't know how else to inject this new theory into the debate about trade without drawing attention to the book that explains the theory.

Pete Murphy
Author, Five Short Blasts

Still Life Living said...

Dude,

With oil prices up 600% over the past four years, with food prices seemingly doubling over the past few months, with rice being rationed, retail gas at $4/gallon, with the dollar falling against most hard currencies, we are very lucky that inflation is only about 3%. Otherwise these price increases would ruin our economy.

MarcLord said...

Duderino,

you are so right, lucky we're in good hands, and we're not in a recession. Nada-nada-not!

MarcLord said...

Mr. Murphy,

In Seattle the drive to higher density, or should I say walk, is very apparent. In addition to lower consumption /O economic growth, it may also mean a savings rate, perhaps even a high one.

Brother Tim said...

Good post, Marc. I don't believe the dollar can be salvaged.

The dollar used to be based on gold; now it's based on oil. Oil is now going through a metamorphosis, in several ways. The Iranians have now opened up their oil bourse, accepting mainly petro-euros and yen, and a few lesser hard currencies. Absolutely no petro-dollars accepted.

Last September Iran started accepting only yen from the Japanese. The Japanese and the Chinese account for a large part of Iranian oil exports, around 20% each.

Iranian production is capable of 6 million barrels/day, as witnessed in the 70s and 80s. Iranian consumption is just over 1 million barrels/day. They're now producing around 4 million barrels/day, exporting 3. So, roughly 3 million barrels/day has been pulled off the open market (NYMEX & IPE).

Add to that 'Private Oil'. This is backroom dealing between producers and consumers, effectively eliminating the middle-man (NYMEX & IPE). An example of this is the Chinese deal with Sudan to get 200,000 barrels/day @ $60.00/barrel for 10 years, in exchange for investment capital for infrastructure and exploration. Russia and Venezuela have made similar deals with China. Every barrel that is sold or traded in this way is one more barrel taken off the open market. THIS is a big part of the rising oil prices, and will surely get worse as time goes by.

Many think the New York Mercantile Exchange and London's International Petroleum Exchange are invincible. They believe that since the two largest Exchanges are basing oil on the dollar, that the dollar cannot fail. However, when those two Exchanges collapse (and they will) the dollar will go belly-up with them. Every barrel bought with yen, euro, or renminbi, is a barrel lost to the dollar.

The collapse is inevitable....and it's imminent. We're in for one helluva ride. Better fasten your seat belt, my friend.

MarcLord said...

Hi Tim,

thanks for the Iranian bourse angle. I'd watched it closely, but hadn't thought it out in those terms vs. the dollar. When they took production off the market back in the 70s, it caused an immediate 150% price gain, taking a few months to level off. This is different...they're not taking it off the open market. They're creating an open market.

Have you posted on this subject before?

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