Thursday, April 24, 2008


The Crucial Primary Battleground Of Guam

There have been 17 separate democratic primary dates so far, each one as overwrought as a joint boy-girl scout jamboree. While running to the airport we actually heard a superdelegate on NPR (missed his name) state, "I wish I didn't have to vote. This is the stupidest system that the hand of man could've possibly come up with."

Guess you might say primary fatigue is setting in. Gosh. I wonder...who was it, what geniuses designed the current democratic primary system? [a-aa-aah-the Clinton-choo!] Along with the fatigue will come the weirdness, particularly now that the Clintons got their "(almost) double digit win" in Pennsylvania. And for our next stop on the Denial Express, we have Guam on May 3rd, with 9 delegate votes. Of course, that's according to Wikipedia--Guam's own newspaper thinks they only get 8. (Having been in some expatriate-type situations, I'll go with Wikipedia for now.)

I started this out as satire, but in looking at the numbers, it could well be the Protectorate Voting Bloc which puts Obama over the top. He has won thumping delegate victories in every non-contiguous, non-state primary district so far, coming out ahead 43.5-17.5, an amazing 72.5% rate. Puerto Rico has a whopping 63 delegates, and yes, oh yes, race and gender might be teentsy, weentsy factors in the primary there.


Whether it has 8 votes or 9, little Guam has transformed into A Decider. Winning 72% of it and Puerto Rico's delegate totals would result in a gain of 52 delegates. That's a pretty big factor when you consider Obama only has to win 52% of the remaining 534 delegates to go over 2,000. That goes down to only 47% if you add 50 more island delegates, and Puerto Rico's primary is held on June 1st. So all this stuff about being deadlocked is a bunch of hooey. Puerto Freaking Rico, not even a state, will probably be what puts Obama over 2000. Send in CNN! ABC! The Drudge Report! Heck, send Larry King on down. Please.

Set against a tasteful studio backdrop banner of "How the Clintons Screwed Themselves," Puerto Rico really is the next huge news story. Historic. Huge-huge. As for Guam, the Gallup, Zogby, and Polling Point organizations must descend upon it post-haste.

2 comments:

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Naj said...
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