The Mooselini Bounce Is Over
Lord Mom sent along an aggregation site of called PalinSucks.Org. I thought it would be flash videos and satire, but it's full of links to serious information dug up from far and wide on our possible Mrs. President. Anyhow, whether resulting from getting to know Sarah Palin better or from McCain's dramatic economic leadership, a bunch of new polls are out, and they indicate the battle for female and independent voters has decidedly swung in Obama's favor.
A new Time magazine poll has Obama 50-43, with a McCain collapse among women.
Obama leads McCain by 17 points with women, 55%-38%. Before the conventions, women preferred Obama by a margin of 10 points, 49%-39%. After McCain picked Palin as his running mate, the gap narrowed to a virtual tie, with Obama holding a 1-point margin, 48%-47%.As a cross-reference, there are the Q-poll results. In Florida, women now back Obama 57-37, in Ohio Obama leads 53-39, in Pennsylvania Obama leads 58-34. (In men among those states, McCain runs from a dead heat to +5.)
Big trouble for McCain. He has the personality of a sea urchin, the body language of a low-status chimpanzee, and the credibility of a used car salesman in a clown suit. He has no room to maneuver on pro-choice, Palin was his best shot at the demographic, and after seeming to gain traction for a week or two she's spinning out. He may go more aggressive on Iraq withdrawal and give it more female-friendly packaging, which might help a little, but I don't see how he can regain decent support levels amongst women.
Further, Pew has a poll out today, Obama 49-42, an AP/Gallup national has Obama 48-41, and the CNN/OPR state polls in some battleground states are as follows:
Getting above 50% in Florida is huge, getting above it in Nevada is downright surprising. Polls are neither terribly precise nor valid, but when they're starting to agree from multiple angles over time...
(Note: if, in an attempt to maintain your sanity, you swore off the evils of pop culture and don't recognize the picture above the title, it's a fembot from Austin Powers' "The Spy Who Shagged Me" movies.)