Embracing The Long Suck

{Note: Friend and Hordie regular Al C. sent this link on and said, "this is the single most realistic assessment I've read." I'm inclined to agree, even though it's written by a former NSA Director. Despite its length, I re-post in full. This guy has his head screwed on straight, and knows how to talk the same way. As for the "Long Suck," I'm not sure who came up with the term, but it's winning in the blogosphere as a short-hand way of describing what faces our hollowing empire, and signifies a long period of recovery. The longer we stay in Iraq, the longer it'll suck.}

NSA DIRECTOR ODOM DISSECTS IRAQ BLUNDERS

by Michael Hammerschlag

HAMMERNEWS

Full Audio (realplayer) 52 min

My Questions (real, winmedia) 7 min
OpedNews, Scoop + 69,000 venues
Providence, RI: April 8

Former National Security Agency Director Lt. General William Odom dissected the strategic folly of the Iraq invasion and Bush Administration policies in a major policy speech- America’s Strategic Paralysis, at Brown University for the Watson Institute for International Studies. "The Iraq War may turn out to be the greatest strategic disaster in American history. In a mere 18 months we went from unprecedented levels of support after 9-11..to being one of the most hated countries…Turkey used to be one of strongest pro-US regimes, now we’re so unpopular, there’s a movie playing there- Metal Storm, about a war between US and Turkey. In addition to producing faulty intel and ties to Al Qaida, Bush made preposterous claim that toppling Saddam would open the way for liberal democracy in a very short time... Misunderstanding the character of American power, he dismissed the allies as a nuisance and failed to get the UN Security Council’s sanction… We must reinforce international law, not reject and ridicule it.”

Odom, now a Yale professor and Hudson Institute senior fellow, was director of the sprawling NSA (which monitors all communications) from 1985-88 under Reagan, and previously was Zbigniew Brzezinski’s assistant under Carter. His latest 2004 book is America’s Inadvertent Empire.

Even if the invasion had gone well, Odom says it wouldn’t have mattered: “The invasion wasn’t in our interests, it was in Iran’s interest, Al Qaida’s interest. Seeing America invade must have made Iranian leaders ecstatic. Iran’s hostility to Saddam was hard to exaggerate.. Iraq is now open to Al Qaida, which it never was before- it’s easier for terrorists to kill Americans there than in the US.. Neither our leaders or the mainstream media recognize the perversity of key US policies now begetting outcomes they were designed to prevent… 3 years later the US is bogged down in Iraq, pretending a Constitution has been put in place, while the civil war rages, Iran meddles, and Al Qaida swells its ranks with new recruits. The US Army is stretched to the breaking point and the majority of Americans have deep doubts. We have lost our capacity to lead and are in a state of crisis- diplomatic and military.”

Odom believes in an immediate phased withdrawal. “There isn’t anything we can do by staying there longer that will make this come out better. Every day we stay in, it gets worse and the price gets higher.”

He decried the “sophomoric and silly” titled war on terrorism. “Terrorism cannot be defeated because it’s not an enemy, it’s a tactic. A war against Al Qaida is sensible and supportable, but a war against a tactic is ludicrous and hurtful… a propaganda ploy to swindle others into supporting one’s own terrorism ... and encourages prejudices against Muslims everywhere. What if we said, ‘Catholic Christian IRA hitmen’? ”

“The hypocrisy is deeper than this. By any measure the US has long used terrorism. In ‘78-79 the Senate was trying to pass a law against international terrorism- in every version they produced, the lawyers said the US would be in violation.”

He said the fixation on spreading democracy was wrongheaded. “Holding elections is easy, creating stable constitutional orders is difficult. Only 8-9 of 50 new democracies created since the 40’s have a constitutional system. Voting only ratifies the constitutional deal that has been agreed to by elites- people or groups with enough power- that is guns and money, to violate the rules with impunity… Voting does not cause a breakthrough… One group will win out and take them off the path to a liberal breakthrough .. Spreading illiberal democracy without Constitutionalism is a very bad idea, if we care about civil liberties. We are getting that lesson again in Hamas.”

Odom called for a “great reduction in US oil consumption” and pilloried our “energy policy of no energy policy. As long as large sums of money roll into the coffers of a few Middle East states, a lot of it will leak into the hands of radical political activists. A “$2-3 a gallon tax could fund massive R+D programs for alternative fuels and generate a strong demand for greater fuel efficiency … Getting serious about nuclear power could also lessen our oil dependency.”

“No government that believes radical terrorist groups in Middle East are serious threat to us would do any less on energy policy.”

Withdrawing our troops from Europe and NE Asia was also dangerous, he said. “Large US land forces in Europe and East Asia have been important in keeping the peace among our allies… allowing businessmen to lower transaction costs… and account for unparalleled economic growth.” President Clinton reduced the Army by about half, but Bush’s deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan “will leave the US unprepared to meet any other significant military contingency… leaving only one brigade in Germany and one in Italy, and eroding troop levels in Korea and Japan. Army units and NATO were cut at such a high level, that most NCO's and officers were away 2 or 3 quarters of the year.” Rumsfeld’s plans threaten to “hollow out NATO, ensuring the failure of military transformations of its new members.” (10 states in Eastern Europe and the Baltic.)

The adult crowd was wowed by the extraordinary density of strategic wisdom and expertise in the hour lecture and Q+A. Asked about the current NSA spying controversy, Odom said, “Well he just invited you to invite me to commit a felony. 18 US Code798 says ‘to disclose anything about how signal intelligence is done is a felony.’ ” “Oh come on, Bill,” joshed a professor to a round of laughter. “After 9-11 Congress was willing to do anything. It’s inconceivable to me that they would not have cooperated to find a legal way to do this (warrantless spying).”

Most radically, Odom sees the hallowed US concern over non-proliferation of nukes as damaging. "Over the past decade the pursuit of non-proliferation has contributed to instability and the loss of American influence. It dictated the invasion of Iraq, and now inspires calls for invading Iran. At the same time we ignore Israeli nukes, we embrace Pakistan and India, in spite of their nukes. This policy is not only perverse, but downright absurd. We will have more proliferation and we better get used to it.

A reporter’s question about the benefits of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities provoked a fervent response. “I think we could have a rapprochement with Iran. You do that and you put it off for another 20 years. You want to be at war with all the Muslims forever?” Regarding a nuclear terrorist attack on a US city, “It’s gonna be bad. But they won’t kill us with one nuke. We can track a nuke back to the country where it came from (at least the fissile material, if there is a recorded elemental signature). These people know that! If we deterred the Soviet Union, think we can’t deter these pipsqueaks? We’re talking ourselves into hysteria. Now we have the incentives so structured that we cause proliferation.. If we bomb, good God man, that tells everyone in the world, get a nuke. We won’t bomb you if you have a nuke.”

He agreed that a catastrophic 10 year Iraq civil war like Lebanon was “a pretty realistic view”. “Iran has told the Shiites, ‘don’t fight, do what the Americans tell you- the electoral process will put you in power, meanwhile we’re arming you and building up your militias. The Sunni insurgency is trying to provoke the civil war while we’re still there so they’re not left to face these militias after we’ve leave.” The Kurds “will get as much autonomy as they can and back out of the system. An independent Kurdistan is likely, but the two factions of Kurdish Peshmerga militias might fight. Al Qaida can’t operate up there, so that will be a stable little island.” But Kurdish independence “won’t please Iran, Syria, or Turkey- a NATO ally.”

The victory of the numerically dominant Shiites (4 to 1) isn’t assured. “Odds look better for the Shiites right now. But the organizational capacity of the Baathists remain sufficient to be a serious contender. How much confidence and capability are these Iranian trained Shiite militias developing? They could fragment among themselves. The clerics may or may not be good organizers of the troops and police. The Baathist Party was modeled after the Soviet system- their ability to implement and impose and compel is pretty impressive. Syria is a pretty stable regime; Iraq was a stable regime.” The civil war could spread the Shiite-Sunni conflict among Arabs in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, maybe Bahrain.

Iraq “will have some sort of dictatorship- either a highly disciplined party or military organization. We just don’t have fragmented societies with such deep sectarian and ethnic divisions that are also nice stable liberal systems. Look at Canada with just two ethnic groups, that teeters occasionally. Where is Saddam when you need him?”

On escaping Iraq: “Once it became obvious I was getting out, I would go to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, Turkey, and Iran and say, ‘I invite you to this meeting to handle stabilization issues as I get out.’ I would have a secret chamber with Iran and say, ‘You hate the Taliban, we hate the Taliban; you want to sell oil, we need to buy oil; your alliance with Russia is very unnatural; if you want to discuss the West Bank- I’ll talk about it but won’t give anything away.’

‘Oh, and by the way, I’m taking the nuclear issue off the table. You want nukes, have them. You live in a bad neighborhood.’ There’s no single diplomatic move that would so revolutionize our position up there.”

In North Korea Odom “anticipates a collapse. That regime is very much like the Soviet regime, they do not transform, they degenerate. When the leadership loses capacity or will to blood or terrorize the population, it collapses.” He sees a sudden reunification of the now nuclear Koreas, followed by tensions with ancient overseer Japan. “Those 2 countries don’t like each other.”

The Koreans say, ‘The Americans are crazy.’- just look at the public opinion polls and attitude of the South Korean government. Kim Jong Il knows just what to do to get the US to spin up in the air 3 times and bribe him on the way down. I see us on autopilot on a self-destructive path. China’s slowly replacing us. They’re becoming the peacemaker- they’re the ones who use their hegemony to settle things constructively.”

The American Empire was different from others in that, "It is ideological, not territorial; it's a money-making empire, not money losing; countries fight to get into this empire, not out; and it provides economic, legal and miltary guidance through supranational organizations."

Odom sees in Iraq ominous parallels with Vietnam. “How did we get in the (Vietnam) war? Phony intelligence over the Tonkin Gulf affair. Once we got in, it was not legitimate to go back and talk about strategic purpose, we were only allowed to talk about how we were doing- the tactics. We would not go back and ask whetherthis was in our interests. I see the pattern so clearly here. We have Iraqization- if they stand up, we’ll stand down. Training troops is not the problem. Political consolidation, not military consolidation, is the issue. Unless troops know to whom they should be loyal, they’ll fight some days, not others (and maybe against the wrong side).”“If they (military power) get ahead of political consolidation, we know what happens then- a military coup.”

“This was imminently foreseeable by my poly sci colleagues who did not stand up and speak out loudly enough at the absurdity of spreading democracy when we’re really talking about Constitutionalism. Creating Constitutions- we don’t know how to do that! (at least not for 220 years) We are essentially paralyzed and can’t do much in the world cause we are bogged down in Iraq.”

"My message of decline is grim, but let us not despair. The declinists wake us up, so that we avoid decline; but the endists urge us to celebrate as we drift towards disaster. Those who urged us to invade Iraq are endists; I’m a declinist…. but only to revive my strategic optimism.”

Michael Hammerschlag's commentary and articles (HAMMERNEWS.com) have appeared in Seattle Times, Providence. Journal, Columbia Journalism Review, Honolulu Advertiser, Capital Times, MediaChannel; and Moscow News, Tribune, Times, and Guardian. He spent 2 years in Russia from 1991-94, while the Empire collapsed and multiple wars raged in the Islamic southern republics. hammerschlag@bigfoot.com

NSA Director Gen. William Odom -new (REALAUDIO) Dissects strategic blunders of Iraq, escape strategies, geopolitical consequences, civil war, Iran attack, Korea- April 7 - 52 min- Brown Univ., Watson Institute INFO

QUESTIONS on IRAN BOMBING (realaudio) + @ 2:03
HANDICAPPING IRAQ CIVIL WAR - 7:14 min total WindowsMedia

Did Moqtada Al-Sadr Hang Saddam?

Sunni muslims are pretty damned sure Moqtada (or variously, Muktada, Muqtada, and Sadr III) Al-Sadr was the black-hooded hangman who pulled the lever on Saddam Hussein. The photographic evidence isn't more than circumstancial, but it doesn't need to be. It works as a perfect rumor and metaphor, since the execution took place on the Eid (Iraqi Day of Forgiveness), and because barring his untimely death, Moqtada Al-Sadr is destined to be Iraq's next real leader. Al-Maliki, the Bush Administration's Prime Marionette in Iraq, who has promised to disarm all militias equally and bring security to Baghdad, is one of his followers. Maliki's natural inclination is one of advocacy for Sadr III and the Dawa Party, and his life depends upon his effectiveness.

Moqtada's great grand-uncle led the prolonged Shiite rebellion against the British in 1920. His father-in-law founded the Dawa Party, a militant Shiite Islamic political group, in what is usually said to be 1958. His father was the most popular Shiite politician in Iraq, and was martyred along with two of his other sons in Najaf in 1999 when his car was machine-gunned. Dawa is a close parallel, rival, and sister party to SCIRI, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (founded 1981). Like SCIRI, many Dawa members have spent time as political refugees in Iran, and many from both parties are paid by Iran. Dawa is home-grown, with a long history of working to bring about a religious revolution by any necessary means, mainly by the removal of the secular Baath party. Its assassination attempts include one on Tariq Aziz in 1980, one on Saddam in 1982, another nearly successful one on Saddam in 1987, and one on Uday in 1996. It paid for each unsuccessful attempt in imprisonment and executions. The Ayatollah Muhammad Bakr Al-Sadr (Sadr I) and his sister, Amina, were executed in 1980. Many others were executed then and at various other times.

While the Sadrists aren't exactly the same as the Iranians themselves, and their vision of government isn't quite the same, they are Iran's blood brothers. It should be particularly ironic that these are the people Bush and the Cheneyettes are handing Iraq to. As for Moqtada at the gallows? C'mon. This is the Mid-East. It was payback.

Barney's Continued Support For War Examined

Barney the Terrier, the White House's Director of Canine Affairs, fielded reporters' questions today regarding what some allege to be his wavering support for the war. Reading from a prepared statement, Barney said, "There will be no rush to judgement, and I strongly support the President. While he hasn't been feeding me as consistently, he has continued to give me occasional treats and rubbed my tummy last week. I respect that, and fully expect his performance to improve. Of course I read the polls, and pay close attention to subtle smells and visual cues. These have alerted me to the seriousness of the times, leading to a minor, temporary loss of bladder control, which some partisan observers have maliciously interpreted as a loss of support."

Senior White House correspondent Helen Thomas then took the unusual step of holding up a sizeable portion of take-out chicken teriyaki, and asked, "Barney: Do you support the President's plan for a "surge" in troop levels?" Barney, a black Scottish terrier noted for his even-tempered grace and quiet intellect, was at first unable to answer the question directly. He avoided Ms. Thomas's gaze, trembled, and whimpered slightly. Then, following a pause of perhaps thirty seconds to devour the chicken, Barney regained his composure to state, "Helen, thank you. That's really not my area of expertise. However as you know, in the course of my duties here the First Lady and I have become extremely close. We've made no final decision, and there is no timeline, but Laura has informed me of her recent purchase of a cyanide Milk Bone," Barney announced to a shocked Press Corps. "Any decision will be mutually undertaken, and if she throws it, I'll be ready."

US Warplanes Deploy To Turkey For "Exercises"

MIL-TURKEY-US-INCIRLIK
US sends warplanes to Turkey's Incirlik military base

ANKARA, Jan 11 (KUNA) -- U.S. F-16 jet-fighters arrived Thursday in Incirlik Air base in southern Turkish city of Adana after, the first time in three years.

According to Local Cihan News Agency, at least 16 F-16 jets joined by early warning system AWACS airplane, as well as tanker airplanes landed here at Incirlik coming from an American base in Germany.

An official at the U.S. embassy in Ankara announced that the planes arrived here for purpose of conducting exercises with the Turkish military in line with agreements between the two states.

Incirlik base was used as a northern recon base for American forces during the Iraqi war in 2003 and since then the base served as a logistic backup for the U.S. army.

Namik Tan, spokesman for the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also confirmed that the U.S. planes arrived for exercises' purposes. (end) tk.

gta

KUNA 120031 Jan 07NNNN

Somalia and Oil: Blackhawk Down-erer

I knew very little about Somalia beyond the Hollywood movie, other than knowing the US has had some troops there. So when Ethiopians with American backing invaded Somalia, I told myself, "MarcLord: there must be oil there. Use the Google and check it out." Sure enough:

According to documents obtained by The Times, nearly two-thirds of Somalia was allocated to the American oil giants Conoco, Amoco, Chevron and Phi]lips in the final years before Somalia's pro-U.S. President Siad Barre was overthrown and the nation plunged into chaos in January, 1991. Industry sources said the companies holding the rights to the most promising concessions are hoping that the Bush Administration's decision to send U.S. troops to safeguard aid shipments to Somalia will also help protect their multimillion-dollar investments there.

Officially, the Administration and the State Department insist that the U.S. military mission in Somalia is strictly humanitarian. Oil industry spokesmen dismissed as "absurd" and "nonsense" allegations by aid experts, veteran East Africa analysts and several prominent Somalis that President Bush, a former Texas oilman, was moved to act in Somalia, at least in part, by the U.S. corporate oil stake.

But corporate and scientific documents disclosed that the American companies are well positioned to pursue Somalia's most promising potential oil reserves the moment the nation is pacified. And the State Department and U.S. military officials acknowledge that one of those oil companies has done more than simply sit back and hope for peace.

Conoco Inc., the only major multinational corporation to maintain a functioning office in Mogadishu throughout the past two years of nationwide anarchy, has been directly involved in the U.S. government's role in the U.N.-sponsored humanitarian military effort.

So, it turns out Conoco's corporate offices had been acting as the de facto US embassy in Mogadishu, and still are. And the expulsion of a social revolution-cum-islamist regime would indicate that there is a goodly amount of oil there, the extraction of which naturally requires a bought-off regime and stepped-up security:

But since the U.S. intervention began, neither the Bush Administration nor any of the oil companies that had been active in Somalia up until the civil war broke out in early 1991 have commented publicly on Somalia's potential for oil and natural gas production. Even in private, veteran oil company exploration experts played down any possible connection between the Administration's move into Somalia and the corporate concessions at stake.

"In the oil world, Somalia is a fringe exploration area," said one Conoco executive who asked not to be named. "They've over-exaggerated it," he said of the geologists' optimism about the prospective oil reserves there. And as for Washington's motives in Somalia, he brushed aside criticisms that have been voiced quietly in Mogadishu, saying, "With America, there is a genuine humanitarian streak in us...that many other countries and cultures cannot understand."

But the same source added that Conoco's decision to maintain its headquarters in the Somali capital even after it pulled out the last of its major equipment in the spring of 1992 was certainly not a humanitarian one. And he confirmed that the company, which has explored Somalia in three major phases beginning in 1952, had achieved "very good oil shows"- industry terminology for an exploration phase that often precedes a major discovery-just before the war broke out.

"We had these very good shows," he said. "We were pleased. That's why Conoco stayed on....The people in Houston are convinced there's oil there."

I couldn't find anything definitive about the size of the finds, but the igneus nerds have been increasingly a-flutter, with this 2000 Association of American Petroleum Geologists report being fairly representative. Offshore finds are said to warrant the installation of drilling platforms. More and more, "Al-Qaeda" and "Taliban" seem to be fancy words for "people who are stingy tightasses with our oil."

Calling America--Electric Light Orchestra (ELO)

Electric Light Orchestra is probably a pretty forgotten band by now. When I was in high school, though, they were big and their album was one of the first and most-played records in my small collection. They were melodic, croony, poppy, and classically based, with layered background vocals and lots of time changes. Lightweight stuff at first listen, but then Jeff Lynne's sharp lyrics start to cut through the cushions, and when the cushions and syrup all wore away they could cut glass. I've been meaning to get some of his music for years, and now it's on YouTube.

ELO was the background music when I got acquainted with a feral, beautiful Catholic girl in her parents' living room after school, when I met her for the first time in front of my locker and she invited me to walk her home. Her mom was never more than 20 feet away from the couch, fixing supper and doing dishes in the kitchen. It seemed really bad then, yet seems pretty wholesome now. So there's a general sense of indulgence, sin, and twelve-part harmony wrapped up in ELO for me, paradoxically innocent, probably similar for many others who share my demographic space and time. I was a kid, and was lucky to survive. (Edit: I meant to say, "Lucky to survive Catholic girls." But since I married one, I'm not sure that's really the case.)

ELO's most popular songs were probably Do Ya ("Do ya do ya want my love?"), Sweet Talkin' Woman ("You've gotta slow down, sweet talkin' woman."), and It's A Living Thing ("It's a given thing, what a terrible thing to lose.") They had a song, one of their last hits, which makes me a lot less bashful about having listened to them. Calling America. The lyrics, at least, seem to stand the test. People were trying to reach this country with metaphor even back then, and whether he meant to be or not, Jeff Lynne was ahead of his time:

(Somebody...)
Told her that there was a place like heaven
Cross the water on a 747
Yeah, we're living in
In a modern world.

Pretty soon she's really got the notion
Of flying out across the big blue ocean
Yeah, we're living in
In a modern world.

Well talk is cheap on satellite
But all I get is...(static!)
Information, I'm still here;
Re-dial on automatic.

Calling America (can't get a message through)
Calling America (that's what she said to do)
Calling America (that's where she has to be)
Calling America (she left a number for me)
Calling America.

But I'm just talking to a satellite
Twenty thousand miles up in the sky each night
Yeah, we're living in
In a modern world.

All I had to do was pick up the phone
I'm out in space, trying to talk to someone
Yeah, we're living in
In a modern world.

She left a number I could call
But no one's there, no one at all
There must be something going wrong
That number just rings on and on.

Said she'd call when she'd been gone a while
Guess she's missing me across the miles
Yeah, we're living in
In a modern world.

Calling America (can't get a message through)
Calling America (that's what she said to do)
Calling America (that's where she has to be)
Calling America (she left a number for me)
Calling America, Calling America, Calling America...

Video: Insurgents Down Apache Helicopter Gunship With Missile (SAM)

Two insurgents dressed in camoflage battle fatigues use what looks like improved SA-8 series shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles to shoot at two helicopters in central Afghanistan. The first time, the launcher is impatient, fires from a high deflection angle, and misses. The next time he waits for a better angle on a slower-moving AH-64 Apache, which he hits about 5 seconds after launch. There is much shouting of "God is great" as about $100 million worth of helicopter and pilot plummet down into the earth. The missile cost between $10k and $50k, and the more of them they make, the cheaper they get. The army uniforms look "Made in Iran" to my eye, that's why I say central Afghanistan. The Taliban don't wear army uniforms, and if they did, they'd get them from Pakistan.

A lot of stuff happened today. There were skirmishes over the war in Iraq as my darling Condi went before the Senate and said that her husb-Bush approved the raid on an Iranian embassy, there were rumors flying all over D.C. of a secret executive order declaring war on Iran and Syria, and somewhere in this great big world, Britney Spears' cleavage and god knows what else probably slipped out of her clothing. It's Friday, after all.

The helicopter/SAM video was deemed "rejected for public listing" on Liveleak, probably because of its implications. If you go there and watch it, however, you'll see the future: small, cheap weapons blowing up big, expensive weapons. Iran has tens of thousands of these missiles already made, and they're holding them back.

Jimmy Carter Exposed As Virulent Anti-Semite

America had a liberal president once who had an IQ of 175. Oddly, he is still alive. But not for long.

Jimmy Carter wrote and published a book recently, I think it was called "A Final Solution to the Jewish Question," and in it, he apparently suggested the troubles in Palestine could only be addressed if all Israeli Jews were herded onto ships and sent to Madagascar. This led to 14 Jewish board members of Carter's hugely unsuccessful human-rights promoting Peanut Foundation to resign immediately (i.e., shortly after one of them bought and read the book about six months after its publication):

"This is not the Carter Center or the Jimmy Carter we came to respect and support," adding "It is with sadness and regret that we hereby tender our resignation from the Board of Councilors of the Carter Center effective immediately."

The names of those who resigned were not given, nor were their responsibilities on the Carter Center Board of Councilors.

A recent op-ed in the Washington Times from a former Carter Center staff-member took the form of an open letter criticizing the former president. Yariv Nornberg, who worked with Carter, wrote that the book "puts all responsibility for the failure of the peace process on Israel...the reader gets the impression that Israel is the source of all wrongdoings in the region and that if it were just willing to comply with the Arab demands, peace would already be flourishing in the Middle East."

Yeah. That's right Yarvi, I got that impression, too. Carter's shifty, mealy-mouthed liberal response was:

"I'm tired of you fuckin' Hebes. Come on down here so I can show ya'll some Georgia Justice."

As for me, I think Carter's comments about Israeli apartheid and racism against their Arab servants are scandalous. I stand in solidarity with your noble apartheid, my Israeli brothers, long may it reign. And long live the memory of Meir Kahane! I just wish, my brothers, it was a little easier to tell you apart from the Arabs.

Greece Joins Al-Qaeda

A funny thing happened on the way to the Forum. It blew up. Sorta. Someone on their 6AM commute in Athens shot an anti-tank rocket grenade (RPG) at the US embassy insignia. They hit the third-floor toilets. (Not making this up.)

I've been waiting for the Greeks to turn on us and reject the American Way of Life for about 2,500 years now, and it's finally happened. If any of you have met more than one taxi driver in Athens, you know that Al-Qaeda will be adopted in solidarity, hugged and kissed on the cheek, offered an Ouzo, expected to communicate in fluent Greek while being driven on a circuitous, meter-spinning route through neighborhoods which haven't gotten a remodel since Napoleon's troops were scratching grafitti on the pyramids at Giza, lectured incomprehensibly on the former glories of Greece, and then dropped off to pine for service at a bad restaurant.

Al-Qaeda will, however, have to compete with groups like November 17, Revolutionary Struggle, and the ACPU (Aggressive Cretan Prostitutes Union). The US embassy is hit with a rocket every ten years by one of these groups on a round-robin basis. So get in line, Osama, and whatever you do, don't give RPGs to the cabbies. Remember, they don't hate us for our freedoms. They despise us, they hate you, and please send their regards to their cousins in Erie.

Bush’s War Heating Up—Attack on Iran Imminent {Note: I'm posting the article below (hat/tip to Bruce at The River Blog) because it's an excellent factual round-up and terse, accurate analysis of the road we're on. I was aware of almost every development, and agree with every word of the analysis. Not sure if it's days, hours, or weeks, but it is close. I've been a one-trick pony for a reason so far this year: brace for impact. By the way, Paul Craig Roberts is not a liberal, he's a financial analyst, a former member of the Reagan Cabinet, and a disenchanted, pissed-off conservative.} by Paul Craig Roberts

Global Research, January 8, 2007

VDARE.COM - 2007-01-07

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Most Americans believe that Bush’s Iraqi misadventure is over. The occupation has lost the support of the electorate, the Congress, the generals and the troops. The Democrats are sitting back waiting for Bush to come to terms with reality. They don’t want to be accused of losing the war by forcing Bush out of Iraq. There are no more troops to commit, and when the "surge" fails, Bush will have no recourse but to withdraw. A little longer, everyone figures, and the senseless killing will be over. Recent news reports indicate that this conclusion could be an even bigger miscalculation than the original invasion. On January 7 the London Times reported that it has learned from "several Israeli military sources" that "Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons." [Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran, by Uzi Mahnami and Sara Butler] The Israeli Foreign Ministry denied the report. The Times reports that "Israeli and American officials have met several times to consider military action. Military analysts said the disclosure of the plans could be intended to put pressure on Tehran to halt enrichment, cajole America into action or soften up world opinion in advance of an Israeli attack." In other news reports (Israeli general suggests to use Azerbaijan's airbases in strike against Iran ) Israeli General Oded Tira is quoted as follows: "President Bush lacks the political power to attack Iran. As an American strike in Iran is essential for our existence, we must help him pave the way by lobbying the Democratic Party (which is conducting itself foolishly) and US newspaper editors. We need to do this in order to turn the Iranian issue to a bipartisan one and unrelated to the Iraq failure." General Tira gives the Israel Lobby the following tasks: (1) "turn to Hilary Clinton and other potential presidential candidates in the Democratic Party so that they support immediate action by Bush against Iran," (2) exert influence on European countries so that "Bush will not be isolated in the international arena again," and (3) "clandestinely cooperate with Saudi Arabis so that it also persuades the US to strike Iran." Israel’s part, General Tira says, is to "prepare an independent military strike by coordinating flights in Iraqi airspace with the US. We should also coordinate with Azerbaijan the use of air bases in its territory and also enlist the support of the Azeri minority in Iran." British commentators report that "the British media appears to be softening us up for an attack on Iran." Robert Fox writing in The First Post (January 6) says, "Suddenly the smell of Britons being prepared for an attack on Iran is all pervasive."[Is war in the script for Iran?] On January 7 the Jerusalem Post reported that Democratic House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told the Israeli newspaper that "Iran with nuclear weapons is unacceptable" and that "the use of force against Teheran remained an option." The Jerusalem Post notes that "Hoyer is considered close to the Jewish community and many Israeli supporters have hailed his elevation in the House." [Democrats: Nuclear Iran unacceptable] Hoyer was the Israel Lobby’s first victory over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who preferred Rep. John Murtha for the post. Murtha was the first important Democrat to call for withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. On November 20 the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, reported that President Bush said he would understand if Israel chose to attack Iran. Bush showed that he was in Israel’s pocket when he blocked the world’s attempt to stop Israel’s bombing of Lebanese civilians and civilian infrastructure. Many commentators believe that the failure of the neoconservatives’ "cakewalk war" has destroyed their influence. This is a mistaken conclusion. The neoconservatives are long-time allies of Israel’s right-wing Likud Party and are part of the Israel Lobby in the US. The Israel Lobby represents the views of only a minority of American Jews but nevertheless essentially owns both political parties and most of the US media. As the neoconservatives are an important part of this powerful lobby, they remain extremely influential. The Lobby works to increase the neoconservatives’ influence. To appreciate the Lobby’s influence, try to find columnists in the major print media and TV commentators who are not apologists for Israel, who do not favor attacking Iran, and who support withdrawing from Iraq. Recently, Billy "One-Note" Kristol, a rabid propagandist for war against Muslims, was given a column in Time magazine. Why would Time think its readers want to read a war propagandist? Could the reason be that the Israel Lobby arranged for Time to receive lucrative advertising contracts in exchange for a column for Kristol? Neoconservatives have called for World War IV against Islam. In Commentary magazine Norman Podhoretz called for the cultural genocide of Islamic peoples. The war is already opened on four fronts: Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Iran. The Bush administration has used its Ethiopian proxies to overthrow the Somali Muslims who overthrew the warlords who drove the US from Somalia. The US Navy and US intelligence are actively engaged with the Ethiopian troops in efforts to hunt down and capture or kill the Somali Muslims. US Embassy spokesman Robert Kerr in Nairobi said that the US has the right to pursue Somalia’s Islamists as part of the war on terror. For at least a year the Bush administration has been fomenting and financing terrorist groups within Iran. Seymour Hersh and former CIA officials have exposed the Bush administration’s support of ethnic-minority groups within Iran that are on the US State Department’s list of terrorist organizations. Last April US Representative Dennis Kucinich wrote a detailed letter to President Bush about US interference in Iran’s internal affairs. He received no reply. The Israeli/neoconservative plan, of which Bush may be a part or simply be a manipulated element, is to provoke a crisis with Iran in which the US Congress will have to support Israel. Both the Israeli government and the American neoconservatives are fanatical. It is a mistake to believe that either will be guided by reason or any appreciation of the potentially catastrophic consequences of an attack on Iran. US aircraft carriers sitting off Iran’s coast are sitting ducks for Iran’s Russian missiles. The neoconservatives would welcome another "new Pearl Harbor." The US media is totally unreliable. It cannot go against Israel, and it will wrap itself in the flag just as it did for the invasion of Iraq. The American public has been deceived (again) and believes that Iran is on the verge of possessing nuclear armaments to be used to wipe Israel off the map. The fact that Americans are such saps for propaganda makes effective opposition to the neoconservatives’ plan for WW IV practically impossible. Large percentages of Americans still believe that Saddam Hussein was responsible for the 9/11 attack. Recent polls show that 32% still believe that Iraq gave substantial support to al-Qaeda, and 18% believe that Saddam Hussein was directly involved in the 9/11 attack. WXIA-TV in Atlanta posted viewers comments about Hussein’s execution on its web site. Atlantan Janet Wesselhoft was confident that Saddam Hussein is "the one who started terrorism in this country, he needs to be put to rest." Even the London Times is in the grip of Israeli propaganda. In its report of Israel’s plan to attack Iran with nuclear weapons, the Times says that Iranian president "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has declared that ‘Israel must be wiped off the map.’" It has been shown by a number of credible experts that this quote is a made-up concoction taken completely out of context. Ahmadinejad said no such thing. In a world ruled by propaganda, lies become truths. The power of the Israel Lobby is so great that it has turned former President Jimmy Carter, probably the most decent man ever to occupy the Oval Office and certainly the president who did the most in behalf of peace in the Middle East, into an anti-Semite, an enemy of Israel. The American media, from its "conservative" end to its "liberal" end did its best to turn Carter into a pariah for telling a few truths about Israel’s mistreatment of the Palestinians in his book, Palestine Peace Not Apartheid. If truth be known, there is nothing to stop the Israeli/neoconservative cabal from widening the war in the Middle East. As I previously reported, the neoconservatives believe that the use of nuclear weapons against Iran would force Muslims to realize that they have no recourse but to submit to the Israeli/US will. The use of nuclear weapons is being rationalized as necessary to destroy Iran’s underground facilities, but the real purpose is to terrorize Islam and to bring it to heel. Until the US finds the courage to acquire a Middle East policy of its own, Americans will continue to reap the evil sowed by the Israel Lobby. Paul Craig Roberts [email him] was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration. He is the author of Supply-Side Revolution : An Insider's Account of Policymaking in Washington; Alienation and the Soviet Economy and Meltdown: Inside the Soviet Economy, and is the co-author with Lawrence M. Stratton of The Tyranny of Good Intentions : How Prosecutors and Bureaucrats Are Trampling the Constitution in the Name of Justice. Click here for Peter Brimelow’s Forbes Magazine interview with Roberts about the recent epidemic of prosecutorial misconduct. Copyright Creators Syndicate, Inc.

US Forces Storm Iranian Consul in Arbil

On the heels of the BushCo communique last night, US troops surrounded and landed on the rooftop of Iran's embassy building in the Kurdish separate state in Iraq. They told the occupants to come out or die, and seized 5 or 6 men. Preznit promised to confront Iran and Syria, accusing them of supporting an insurgency in Iraq. These kind of statements can be confusing, since it's actually the Saudis who are most supporting the Sunni insurgency, which is likely responsible for most American deaths in Iraq. No matter, when you're trying to provoke a war. Having been so cheery the past few days, I'll tell you there's no need for anxiety over this. I'm sure the Bush Administration knows what it's doing, and we're in good hands.

Kurdistan is recognized as a separate state, and obviously agreed to have an Iranian embassy there, so this was a violation of sovereignty under any norms or international laws you'd care to apply. With that in mind, here are some very interesting sentences which are censored from the BBC (and perhaps) upcoming US versions of this article, but which you find in the German-filed original version:

Meanwhile, a source close to the Kurdistani government said the administration was unaware of the US plans to raid the Iranian consulate and didn't know the purpose of the operation.

After raiding the consulate, the US forces headed for Eikawa district, which hosts foreign companies and countries' representatives. Security forces of the Democratic Party of Kurdistan (KDP) reportedly surrounded three US military vehicles to prevent them from further action.

Hmm. So, it sounds like Barzani (ruler of Kurdistan) didn't know about this, and didn't like it one bit. Which means the message was meant for him, with the US unhappy about his relations with Iran, in that having any at all is not with The Program. So Barzani will be driven further into the arms of Iran if he wasn't already in them. It's a direct slap in the face of Iran, too, but they can probably take it, having taken worse from America for the past 66 years (when Stormin' Norman Schwarzkof's dad became Military Governor of Iran in 1941.) And here's an Arabic network's coverage on the whole thing:

The IRIB Arabic network Al-Alam reported that the Iranian consulate employees had already been transferred to Baghdad although the president of the Kurdish autonomous region, Massoud Barzani, had tried to prevent the transfer.

Hosseini told ISNA news agency that all accusations by the US alleging Iranian interference in Iraq's internal affairs were just excuses to cover up the US failure in Iraq.

"Even the Iraqi officials have several times confirmed that Iran had no interference in Iraq," the spokesman said.

Forewarned is forearmed.

Enemy Mines, War With Iran, Our Fate

And this is the writing that was inscribed: MENE, MENE, TEKEL, and UPARSIN. This is the interpretation of the matter: MENE, God has numbered the days of your kingdom and brought it to an end; TEKEL, you have been weighed on the scales and found wanting; UPARSIN, your kingdom is divided and given to the Medes and Persians.

Daniel 5: 25-28

How I'd much rather write about the nice new Democratic Congress passing a minimum wage increase, and how owning a slave to work your back 40 acres would still be more expensive (quite literally) than paying a 40-hr per week worker the new minimum wage. I haven't been saying enough nice things about Congress lately, who have finally gotten the message the American people want out of Iraq and are set to raise hell with the Bush Administration. Too bad we're both probably three years too late. Go, people and Congress, go.

In Speaking of the Straits of Hormuz, I speculated that an Iranian bottom-lurking mine was probably involved in a US sub's collision with a humongous Japanese tanker, the Mogamigawa (in English, it means something like "Duck God River"). If the anonymous words of a shipping company spokeswoman are to be relied on, and those of the tanker's crew, either a mine or a torpedo was almost certainly fired at the USS Newport News. What would've happened if it sunk it or the tanker?

Here's how the US Navy sums up the threat from stealth propulsion and other modern underwater mines:

Today the Navy can expect to encounter a wide spectrum of naval mines, from traditional low-technology mines to technologically advanced systems. Although low-technology mines continue to be manufactured, today's mine producers and exporters are focusing on the growing demand for more capable weapons. Modern influence mines, whether magnetic, acoustic, seismic, underwater electric potential (UEP), pressure, or any combination thereof, may incorporate advanced technologies to improve their lethality, reliability, and versatility.

Application of stealth technology, including the use of irregular shapes, anechoic coatings, and nonmagnetic materials - including the use of fiberglass case materials - increases resistance to countermeasures and reduces maintenance requirements. The proliferation of advanced mines designed with remote control and counter-countermeasures capabilities is also of grave concern. Many of these are equipped with microprocessor-controlled target detection devices, ship counters, remote control, and delayed arming mechanisms, as well as sweep obstructors to thwart attempts at identification and/or neutralization. Furthermore, microprocessor-controlled TDDs can be used to upgrade obsolescent mines at a fraction of the cost of new mines. Improved sensors, propulsion systems, and deployment methods are also increasing the lethality, versatility, effective range, and countermeasure resistance of propelled warhead mines. All of these technologies are readily available for export. The steadily increasing number of mine producers and exporters is enabling countries without a production capability to access a wide range of weapons, from simple moored contact mines to advanced mines using the latest technology.

The Navy doesn't sound all that confident about how to deal with these mines. In fact, there is no known defense for propulsion mines, which Iran has purchased from Russia. Here are some of the characteristics of the device which made the loud bang and made the shaking before the sub hit the tanker, as the crew of the Mogamigawa related to the ship's owners:

Russia's widely exported UDM bottom-influence mine can either be purchased or backfitted with a remote control capability. The tactical advantages of remote control systems, especially in defensive, shallow-water environments, will likely further their development and use. The SMDM mobile mine is marketed for export as an efficient, highly sweep-resistant weapon for use against surface ships and submarines in constrained coastal waters that may be inaccessible to conventional minelaying platforms. The SMDM combines a bottom-influence mine with a torpedo afterbody to provide a considerable stand-off capability. These systems, in conjunction with a stockpile that at one time reached hundreds of thousands of mines, represent a potentially formidable mine proliferation threat.

China is marketing the EM55, a straight-rising, rocket-propelled warhead mine for use against surface ships and submarines. Propelled-warhead mines use either buoyancy or a propulsion system to transport the warhead to the target, providing greater range capability than conventional mines. Furthermore, the faster the warhead reaches the target the less time the platform has to initiate countermeasures or evasive maneuvers. These mines can be straight-rising, "vectored," or homing. Buoyancy-propelled mines are most effective in shallow waters against slow moving targets, whereas rocket-propelled mines travel three times faster and can be used in waters as deep as 650 feet.

Iran continues to procure mines as part of its naval development program. Their mine program is part of a larger strategy to control access to the Strait of Hormuz.

Here's how I sum up the threat from the mines, and the threat from a cabal looking to make another "preemptive strike:" having two carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf isn't doing a whole hell of a lot for the security of the American people or anyone else. It's doing the opposite. The reverse. The upside-down and sideways. The verkackt. America is acting like a new Titanic, like it's intending to ram the iceberg so it'll magically disperse into little pieces and melt. But we are a mere ship of state, and a mortal one.

I'll tell you straight. We will be damned lucky to make it out of 2007 without these murderous imbeciles hitting Iran with nukes. And if they do, we are in deep, deep trouble. And that's even without triggering the global nuclear war which is a distinct possibility. Don't get me wrong: I'm an optimist. I don't think a war has to happen, and even think the response to bombing Iran might be more measured than nuclear. But you can believe me when I say, "we will be damned lucky." Because all the signs right now point to hitting Iran. Something domestic or miraculous will have to happen to derail it, because the pieces are all in place.

Invading Iraq, you see, was like Germany invading Poland, it was like Japan invading China, predatory acts with all the attending sins and crimes against humanity. It's a hanging crime amongst nations, and unless we back out and acknowledge that fact, making proper, humble amends as a country and as people, we're going to hang for it. Or better put, we'll sink for it. Unless the former juvenile delinquents merrily spinning the helm to aim for the iceberg can be removed this year, America will be defeated like no country before. I'm not sure how, but it won't be good. This is our country, we are its people, and unless we storm that bridge and truss up the psychopaths who are set to start nuclear war, we will be judged very harshly. It's written on the wall by a disembodied hand as we weigh treasure, reading MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN: "You have been weighed, and found wanting," was Daniel's interpretation of the writing to Belshazzar. Literally, it would mean something like "half a dollar, half a dollar, a penny, and bits." Daniel meant that the King would die and his lands would be split. They did.

God has always righted things with fire that were as wrong as this. It's hard to see when it's in front of your nose, but by allowing so great an evil, and then by benefiting from it, we too become evil. Oh, how our country will be humbled if we don't do the right thing now. The scenario I previously imagined (on the record) which Dick Cheney and by extension, George W. Bush, would use to start a shooting war with Iran was the pretext of an American nuclear submarine being sunk in the Persian Gulf. And that almost happened on Monday. God damn Dick Cheney. May God strike him and his cabal dead for the peace of nations, and may God bless and empower those people who have been trying, successfully so far, to thwart the Neocon push for war with Iran. This is my prayer in the holiest name I know, Jesus Christ whom I believe, Amen.

Speaking Of The Straits Of Hormuz...

Boy, they don't call those sub-dudes "The Silent Service" for nothing. The crew of the USS Newport News is going to have to sit there and take it with straight faces while salty mariners make sport of them in every port. Imagine one making a few antic gestures as he sidles up in a bar to ask, "So...how was she?" The old salt would be referring to the Japanese oil tanker the USS Newport collided with on Monday. Tanker, meet sub. A match made by Neptune. "It's ok, fellas. We understand. A sub gets awful lonely on a cruise, skulking around down there for months at a time."

Published details were sparse, except to say the damage was nothing much to write home, or for that matter a newspaper article, about. And, ahm, the submarine was surfacing at the time. And, ahhh, the accident occurred somewhere south of the Straits of Hormuz, and gosh, doesn't it make you recall the time a US sub surfaced underneath a Japanese training yacht while demonstrating an emergency maneuver, capsizing it and killing a bunch of civilians and high school students?

No, no, actually it didn't make me recall those happy-go-lucky hijinks. Not at all. Because I was too busy wondering why I'm expected to believe a submarine with the most sophisticated underwater listening and imaging technologies missed the sizeable, deafening, and fairly important presence of a Japanese oil tanker directly above it. And how a submarine would plead deafness, dumbness, and blindness while on combat operations in the Persian Gulf.

Here's what really happened: the Newport News was using the tanker as cover, as a very effective sonar shield and signature eraser. It used it to sneak past the hearing aids of the Iranian navy, staying tight underneath as it proceeded into or out of the Straits. The sub was surveying coastal defenses. An ardent but respectful relationship with the tanker could've finally been consummated for one of several reasons; an unexpectedly tight underwater navigational squeeze, detection by shore defenses and resulting evasive maneuvers, or detection by an Iranian submarine (they have pretty good ones) which played a game of "chicken." Chances the collision was a flat-out stupid mistake are remote.

For a really fun book on underwater Cold War secrets and submarine tactical development, 'Blind Man's Bluff' is a great read.

Update: Confirmed. The USS Newport News rear-ended the tanker ship as it was passing out of the Straits on its way to Singapore. Various connotations of the term "rear-ended"can be piled on to the ribaldry already noted above. The submarine was shadowing the tanker and hiding in its propreller wash, a time-honored way to escape detection. I'm speculating about the specific missions the submarine was performing in the Straits, and about reasons for the collision, but those are the sorts of things subs are made for, and sometimes they get into all kinds of trouble we don't hear about. It would seem that happened here, because there's only one way subs have ever hit tankers, and that's intentionally. With torpedoes.

Update, Aha: Looks like there was some evasive maneuvering. Sailors on the tanker are said to have heard a loud bang and felt shaking before the sub hit them. Iran has jet-propelled mines which are designed to lurk on the sea floor, and then be activated remotely or automatically and steer towards a target:

The Mogamigawa was traveling from the Gulf to Singapore and was carrying a crew of eight Japanese and 16 Filipinos. It is expected to arrive in the port of Khor Fakkan later Tuesday, company spokeswoman said on condition of anonymity, citing protocol.

She said crew members reported a sudden large bang and shaking just before the collision, but no other details were immediately available.

The Japanese government has asked the U.S. side to investigate. Ahndahl said a Navy investigation would begin shortly.

I wouldn't wait on that Navy investigation. But with mines like that, it wouldn't be too hard to block the Straits: by sinking tankers filled to the brim with oil. And burning the oil slicks. Food for thought on my next trip to the gas station.

Wargame: Consequences Of Bombing Iran, Pt. II

There aren't enough country clubs around Boca Raton to embrace the generals who will fail in the Mid-East. There are also a lot of interesting stories state-side to share, it's just that they're all eclipsed, if you're cadged for time, by what's going on in The Gulf.

Some genuinely competent and thoughtful analysts have gone on the record saying the US won't attack Iran because it would be economic suicide, and would trigger a worldwide recession. I previously wrote about the nasty blowback US and Coalition ground forces in Iraq would face from escalated and open Iranian involvement in the insurgency there. But guess what? Cheney, the Neocons, the Likudniks, and the Reich Wing have good reason to think the Iranians are cheating, to fear the mushrooming-cloud-thingie, and they are all desperately working to gin up a case for taking out the nascent production facilities, which Iran has every right to have and for all I know could be nothing more than holes drilled deeply into the ground and some cement mixing. However, the Neocons are freaked out over this and have been thinking about it a long time. And unlike us, they've got access to all the free go-juice they want. Iran hasn't attacked anything since 1825, but given their past and present sins in the region, Neocon paranoia is justified. Let's hope renewed Democratic threats under Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's majority to cut the funding for the war are genuine. Meanwhile, though, the train keeps rolling.

This week, with Admiral William Fallon being put in command of the Pentagon's Central Command for Iraq, the Neocons have laid a few more sections of the required track to reach their ultimate goal, to remain the Mid-East's masters. That's right. They put a Navy fly-boy, Vietnam vet, blue-lagoon Pacific Admiral in charge of land-based operations. Whassup? Dudn't make much sense? Well, it do if his main purpose is to mount a sea-based bombing campaign against Iran. Fallon relieves the Special Forces-trained, Lebanese-descended and Arabic-speaking General Abizaid. And the guy who wrote the Army's most recent book on counterinsurgency and had some success in subduing the insurgency in Mosul, Lt. General David Petraeus, takes over from George William Casey, Jr., whose chief claim to fame is that his dad was the most senior military commander to die in Vietnam, in a copter crash when he was Major General commanding the 1st Cavalry Division. Casey is said to be the next Chief of Staff, replacing the Special Forces-trained Peter Schoomaker. When I'm trying to tell the next moves of an organization, I listen less to what they're saying and more to their new hires at the top. It's as good a compass as you get.

The Times says that two Israeli fighter/bomber squadrons are training to attack Iranian production facilities with the nuclear-tipped "bunker-buster" bombs: Israel Plans Nuclear Strike On Iran. Israel, of course, denies this. But I recall a lot of GBU-28 bunker-busters were shipped to Israel through Glasgow last summer, and they weren't used in Lebanon.

This is the part in those old war movies where the klaxons are sounding on the ship, and the announcer says over the loudspeakers, "Now hear this, now hear this!" Any type of attack on Iranian soil will mean severe oil supply disruption for at least three months, with periods of severe disruption continuing for the duration of a conflict. Iran would not only shut its own oil in, it would also be able to completely close the Straits of Hormuz, through which roughly 50% of the world's oil is shipped. Estimates on how long they could keep the Straits closed off vary widely, but it would take a significant amount of time to clear tankers sunk in the very narrow shipping lanes, a great deal of firepower to clear the area of military threats, constant minesweeping and taking of coastal land to prevent sabotage, and the expensive indefinite vigilance of at least a couple of carrier battle groups.

Even if the Straits of Hormuz can be kept clear, it'll be so expensive on top of spreading Damocles in Iraq that the effort is unwinnable--oh, and pardon me for being skeptical of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve being solid for six months' worth of supply, since it was drawn down after Hurricane Katrina shut down at least 11 oil refining, pumping, production, or transfer facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. It is time to go buy some spare gasoline, store up on some food and necessaries, and figure out how to change our energy consumption lives, because it looks like the Neocons are going to change them for us. And for those heavily parked in the stock market, it's time to start moving the car before it's stripped of saleable parts and torched by thieves.

It won't be long now. Either the people trying to stop an attack on Iran (diplomats representing more or less the entire world) will be successful and the Cheneyettes will break and recede, or Iran will be attacked and First World economies will be plunged into disruption, panic, and severe recession. Plunged into history. But the Cheneyettes still control the Pentagon promotions and the mainstream airwaves, so we must conclude they're still running things, however tenuously.

Talismans

In my personal life, I have many things to be deeply thankful for. My blogging fell off these holidays due to enjoying time with family new and old, and I sometimes even went so far as to talk with friends on the phone. I'm still at the digestion phase of moving out of 2006.

What a year. Rather than enumerate the pluses and minuses of it or to road-map the challenges and opportunities of this next, I'd rather reach far, far back into time and draw on the strength of our ancestors, to reinforce myself with their joyful talismans, and to share them. I find them truly remarkable, and the exhibits above are the oldest works of art in the world.

We are a race which cannot resist decoration and expression, and although my talents don't flow so much in those directions, I admire the graces of those who are more blessed. We may still be animals, but the art we make lifts us up for moments into a higher status, one of meta-animal, and capturing the essence of another being and breathing life into color and clay is indeed a form of mastery. In such strivings I see the stirrings of attentive, loving stewarship which leans towards godliness, and they can stand as a bulwark, saying, no, surely we will not let our greed destroy all the beauty and good in this world, which the gods who came before so generously gave. Surely we can adapt as a race and mature as we must--not merely in the further mastery of dimensions, but also in the core of our most human selves.

These pieces were found in and near a cave in the Black Forest called Hohle Fels, which hunters used for shelter in the Ice Age. More than 32,000 years ago. 32,000 years...the Neanderthals still walked in Europe. But doesn't it feel like you could sit down with the creators and share a laugh over dinner? My two-year old's attempts at drawing birds reminded me of these cave people, and sent me searching for them again. The two line drawings followed earlier, messier attempts to his draw his beloved pizzas and trees, and they look to me to closely resemble the heads of a puffin and a duck. They may be just coincidental, but I thought them startlingly successful and worth preserving: and maybe there are iconic forms passed down to us by means we don't understand. At any rate, they reminded me of the tiny water fowl carved from ivory so long ago in Holhe Fels, the one I eulogized in a post a few months back, and of the great capacities we still have in us. They give me hope.

Money No Longer Connected To Politics!!

Woo-hoo! Sure glad that phase is over. Nancy Pelosi took the gavel to return the House majority leadership to the Dims today, and she announced that the toughest Congressional ethics bill in history would be passed. Presumably, this will mean that Republicans will no longer be able to play Death Race 2000 with their pedestrian constituents, and must resort to killing and maiming people by more traditional means, like by running stoplights or paying for ninja hit squads like regular citizens. For the Dims, maybe it's time to rev the engines, put on the helmets, and check the empty scorecards. The competition will be keen.

Don't get me wrong. I'm glad the first female Speaker of the House has happened. I like Nancy Pelosi, and am genuinely glad she's the Speaker and a goose-stepping brownshirt degenerate with a lazy, insolent drawl is not. By comparison, she's extremely capable. I was glad, even hopeful, when she announced today that Congressional politics will be disconnected from the interests of Money. But. The system is the same. And are four days of celebrating before the Passover in good taste? Is it time to open our wallets, jewelry cases, and safe-deposit boxes and give everything at the Fund-Raiser they're holding to commemorate the demise of Special Interests? Maybe so. Wyclef Jean, Tony Bennett, and a couple members of the Grateful Dead have been singing there tonight:

The main event on Jan. 4 is her election as speaker. First, she'll attend a nondenominational prayer service, a tradition on the day a new Congress convenes, at St. Peter's Catholic Church on Capitol Hill.

The House meets at noon to elect Pelosi in a formal process expected to take several hours.

That evening, Pelosi will be honored at a concert/fundraiser for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which runs the party's national House campaign. Entertainment at the National Building Museum includes, King, Jean and Mickey Hart, late of the Grateful Dead.

The price will be steep: $15,000 for political action committees. But, hey, they get two tickets. The cost for regular folks is a mere $1,000 a ticket.

Woodenheadedness

Barbara Tuchman was a library rat of the first order, and she wrote some great history books. Her grandfather was Secretary of the Treasury, and this may account for why she has an almost psychic albeit superlatively researched feel for decision-making processes. The Guns of August, for which she won her first Pulitzer Prize, is still accepted as the definitive account of how great powers and small could not overcome slights real and imagined, and conned themselves into the necessity of the First World War despite the best efforts of the single royal family (the Windsors) to forestall it, whose monarchs controlled almost every country involved. Germany's emperor for example, Kaiser Wilhelm, was more proper an Englishman than Prince Charles, and I'm sure he would've thought as much. Yet he couldn't stop the slide into war.

Mad to learn of war as I was, I read The Guns of August, despite the fact there was precious little "action" in it, when no more than 10. It was challenging, but Tuchman is an accessible writer, and in the process she probably formed my views on power politics more than any single writer. She instilled a deep skepticism for the claimed skills and conceits of politicians, whom as a group I view as something akin to actors, only of lower morals. Ms. Tuchman's ability for prose and storytelling spoiled me for less talented historians, and while I haven't read all her works, the ones I did were all good enough to read more than once. My friend Al C. is reading The G of A now, likely for its applicability to the present world situation.

Another Tuchman book, probably my favorite for its unique treatment of a subject not well or often enough illuminated, and which is highly applicable to our country's current predicament, is called The March of Folly. It's both a contemplation and a passionately skilled dissection of why governments do stupid things on a grand scale, even when almost all the key actors know they're making a big mess of things. Tuchman compares the messes of The Trojan War, The Protestant Secession, The American Revolution, and The American War in Vietnam, and pays particular attention to the traits and decision-making processes common and distinct to each. A couple of quotes from it:

"The power to command frequently causes failure to think."

"A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests..."

Really, Ms. Tuchman uses Western history's most major, prolonged debacles as instructive preambles serving as background terrain to her centerpiece, a vivisected, sunlit tableau of America's agonizing disaster in Vietnam. Few people realize Vietnam was the equal of the eclipse of Greece, the shattering of the Catholic church, or the beginning of the end of Rule Brittania. But she did, and she hated the murderous, addle-brained, and wasteful blunder there, enough to begin writing a comparative condemnation of it while it was still ongoing; in reading the pertinent sections of her book, you begin to realize she is well aware of the implications of those failures and sins, and you begin to sense them too. I'm not sure she fully predicted the debacle in Iraq, nor the denouement which will follow. But she certainly helped me to do so, and for that I'm forever in her debt.