tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post4430625784488885608..comments2024-03-18T02:14:50.959-07:00Comments on ADORED BY HORDES: MarcLordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17036432624426967890noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-80725801935463736072007-12-29T17:42:00.000-08:002007-12-29T17:42:00.000-08:00Correction to above post: I meant Gorbachev consul...Correction to above post: I meant Gorbachev consulted with dissident soviet scientist Andre Sakharov, not foreign minister Shevardnadze.MarcLordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17036432624426967890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-6842882085520335902007-12-29T17:40:00.000-08:002007-12-29T17:40:00.000-08:00Jon,For reasons you'll see below, I'm not so forgi...Jon,<BR/><BR/>For reasons you'll see below, I'm not so forgiving, neither of mindsets nor decisions.<BR/><BR/>True, the CIA was "concerned" re: Soviets capturing the Stinger and reverse engineering them, but that was either bullshit or sheer ignorance. The Russian shoulder-fired SA-18'Grouse' was already deployed, with greatly improved target acquisition properties (reaction time, IR, anti-jamming, proximity fuse, wider target window) over the SA-7 Grail. It was somewhat lighter, roughly as effective, and far cheaper than the Stinger. It deployed in early 1984.<BR/><BR/>True, concerns about pissing off the Juggernaut and getting caught in a ground war colored everything. The US Army was widely thought to be on convalescent leave, and the CIA's attitude reflected the Reagan administration's basic political stance, i.e, that it was starting from a position of weakness. Accordingly, the Reaganites did take an "outspend them, up-the-ante" strategic approach which, in the orthodox historical record, "worked." Yet as we now know, Gorbachev visited ballistic scientist Shevardnadze at the time, who advised that Star Wars was ridiculous and defeating it was trivial (missiles can be steered).<BR/><BR/>http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20000301fareviewessay33/david-greenberg/the-empire-strikes-out-why-star-wars-did-not-end-the-cold-war.html<BR/><BR/>In late winter 1985, I walked into my university library, picked up the CIA world factbook, looked for articles in the Economist, etc on USSR. I then talked to a number of foreign policy professors, also two Russian defectors, one Pole, and to a communications professor I lived with who spent time in Afghanistan prior to the invasion. Within three weeks, a clear overall picture was forming.<BR/><BR/>Amongst other details, I learned the Russians had secretly been selling lots of gold starting in 1980. The CIA was well aware of this, and its own published estimates had the USSR economy in decline if not free-fall. Routinely, I was amongst virulent anti-communist hawks who automatically assumed I imbibed from the same punch bowl. Altogether, there was little doubt in my mind the USSR was falling fast, that Afghanistan was a huge mistake, with no doubt at all the Reaganites were hysterical carny barkers.<BR/><BR/>If a 21 year old kid could figure out in a few weeks that the Soviet Union was dying, one would expect professional military and intelligence strategists to do the same. Many were, but were obviously getting shot down, and I instinctively didn't want to work in such an environment. I would've rather sold heroin. Oh, right...Islamabad's the spot for that.MarcLordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17036432624426967890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-17331394120626419492007-12-29T15:05:00.000-08:002007-12-29T15:05:00.000-08:00According to The History Channel broadcast I menti...According to The History Channel broadcast I mentioned, the mainstream CIA was afraid of two things regarding supplying the insurgents with Stinger missiles: 1) Soviets capturing some and reverse engineering them; and 2) Falling into Terrorist hands. The first fear was very real; it's easy to forget the fear endemic in the Cold War!<BR/><BR/>Another point was the fear of provoking the Soviets into attacking the U.S. or Europe by so openly supplying American material that the insurgents used to kill Soviet soldiers. Again, we tend to forget that this was the mighty Evil Empire that we were constantly being told had more missiles than us, etc. Now we realize that at the time the Military Industrial Complex was telling us all this about the imminent Soviet threat, their economy was so bad the empire would be gone in just a few years. Yet another Intelligence Failure....Jonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04131130287667282873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-5999009362530580142007-12-29T14:51:00.000-08:002007-12-29T14:51:00.000-08:00Vig,I can see some valid arguments to not send Sti...Vig,<BR/><BR/>I can see some valid arguments to not send Stingers or night-sniper rifles, particularly in light of Russia's decaying economic base and impending collapse. (My hunches about a hollow bear, probably more than any other reason, is why I didn't go there. The adventure potential was undeniable.) The hard-liners preferred to think in terms of Juggernaut, but even then the arguments against supply were ultimately more paranoid than strategic, and few score Stinger missiles and sniper rifles weren't going to blow back by themselves. <BR/><BR/>The Reich Wing saw the tribes as expendable abstractions, and I suspect were already thinking in terms of future betrayals over oil pipelines, whereas Wilson and the Avocado saw and dealt with Afghanis as human beings with forceful personalities, the possibility of self-determination ahead of them.MarcLordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17036432624426967890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-90363154231501648622007-12-29T14:38:00.000-08:002007-12-29T14:38:00.000-08:00Great, now you made me sad by reminding me of our ...Great, now you made me sad by reminding me of our loss of Molly Ivins :(Jonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04131130287667282873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-54465508639727423142007-12-29T14:35:00.000-08:002007-12-29T14:35:00.000-08:00Jon, got to see @10 mins of the History Channel sp...Jon, <BR/><BR/>got to see @10 mins of the History Channel special (the same segments twice) before holiday duties intervened. Looked great.<BR/><BR/>Absolutely agreed, the message of Afghanistan is "Beware of Blowback," and ignorance of it is coming home to roost in Pakistan right now. <BR/><BR/>I don't think Wilson or Avocado were terribly farsighted, either, but they were thinking further than the Ollie North contingent or the developmentally challenged Richard Perle. But they had formed ideas about what Afghanistan needed to step into the 20th century, knew that the tribes could take an Iroquois Nations step forward, and they must have been very disappointed when the spigot got shut off cold turkey.<BR/><BR/>De-militarizing the border provinces in "Afgakistan" could only be accomplished with a strong, agnostic, and benevolent presence there after Najibullah. On the cheap.<BR/><BR/>Even after 9/11, it was still not too late for a Marshall Plan for Afghanistan, which would've attracted much multilateral, and quite tangible, support at the time. The opportunity was so obvious, I wrote the idea to Molly Ivins and she used it in one of her columns. Instead we were cajoled into taking nonsensical revenge on Afghanistan.MarcLordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17036432624426967890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-63839730702506249102007-12-29T14:19:00.000-08:002007-12-29T14:19:00.000-08:00I think the correct lesson is to be careful of blo...I think the correct lesson is to be careful of blowback. No one can expect any administration to predict the future, but history has shown that allow power vacuums to exist is not a good idea. Compare how the victorious allies treated Germany after WWI (revenge; disregard for its stability) with how they treated it after WWII (make it a safe place to be a future ally). Discuss amongst yourselfs.Jonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04131130287667282873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-86399076683153717002007-12-29T14:16:00.000-08:002007-12-29T14:16:00.000-08:00You'll find the book a quick read.You'll find the book a quick read.Vigilantehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07640246609540057997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-27768331760892063092007-12-29T14:15:00.000-08:002007-12-29T14:15:00.000-08:00You take the absolutely and correct tack on Charli...You take the absolutely and correct tack on Charlie Wilson's War. Charlie Wilson had nothing for which to apologize. I am fooking fed up with decade-late second guessers saying the muhedine (sp) shouldn't have been supplied with missiles and rifles that shoot straight. This was the first authentically non-'defensive' case of Soviet aggression and it begged for opposition and reversal. Those who second-guess Wilson and Avrakatos are those who argue that so-called Islamofascism is on the same level as Soviet communism and Fascism. They are asinine.Vigilantehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07640246609540057997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-57367025377378762752007-12-29T14:08:00.000-08:002007-12-29T14:08:00.000-08:00I just finished watching a two hour special on The...I just finished watching a two hour special on The History Channel that I recorded a week or two ago. It was quite good, interviews with the actual participants as well as "re-enactments." I recommend it, if they re-run it (I just checked the schedule and don't see anything coming up, but that can change....)Jonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04131130287667282873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-65742583033751084052007-12-29T14:04:00.000-08:002007-12-29T14:04:00.000-08:00Mr. Vig,Thanks, I would like to get around to read...Mr. Vig,<BR/><BR/>Thanks, I would like to get around to reading the book, which I'm sure must be voluminous and entertaining. Am going to see the movie soon enough; part of my interest in Afghanistan comes from having had some tertiary brushes with it, witting and not.<BR/><BR/>I'll look for a current (more lasting) YouTube version. Watched a very good 8-minute clip.MarcLordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17036432624426967890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-18119778859447830442007-12-28T18:06:00.000-08:002007-12-28T18:06:00.000-08:00Sorry the You-Tube isn't available any longer...Sorry the You-Tube isn't available any longer...Vigilantehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07640246609540057997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-20956996991825067622007-12-28T18:05:00.000-08:002007-12-28T18:05:00.000-08:00Well done, Marc. I enjoyed the book & looking forw...Well done, Marc. I enjoyed the book & looking forward to the movie.Vigilantehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07640246609540057997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-24568914178608001582007-12-25T13:40:00.000-08:002007-12-25T13:40:00.000-08:00LOLOL! Merry Christmas, Jon, to you and all of you...LOLOL! Merry Christmas, Jon, to you and all of yours.MarcLordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17036432624426967890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32850048.post-68820735925832709262007-12-25T07:42:00.000-08:002007-12-25T07:42:00.000-08:00A "conservative" whining about a cocaine sniffing ...A "conservative" whining about a cocaine sniffing alcoholic in Congress? He must be glad we don't have one in the White House. Oh wait....Jonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04131130287667282873noreply@blogger.com